Citigroup starts coverage on Moderna, notes risky path to profitability

Citigroup starts coverage on vaccine maker Moderna MRNA.O with "neutral/high risk" rating and $40 PT, which represents a 14.3% upside to stock's last close

Company's transition away from its respiratory vaccine franchise will be challenging, with "breakeven on a cash-cost basis is not internally projected to be until 2028" - brokerage

Moderna's sales will remain primarily from its currently marketed respiratory vaccines, Spikevax and mRESVIA, with estimated sales of $1.4 bln and $1.1 bln in 2032, Citigroup says

"Seasonality factors continue to have an impact" on company's business, making its path to profitability "risky" due to fluctuations in demand and inventory management - brokerage

Says company's next-gen COVID and COVID+flu combo vaccines are expected to be approved in 2025, but are unlikely to be major growth drivers

Shares fell 63% in 2024