LIVE MARKETS-Recession? What recession?
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RECESSION? WHAT RECESSION?
While growth worries have thrown U.S. markets into a tailspin, company executives in Europe are not yet sounding the alarm about a possible European recession, analysis of event transcripts shows.
According to data from market intelligence platform AlphaSense, there have only been 34 mentions of the word "recession" in STOXX 600 .STOXX earnings transcripts since the start of the year, the lowest quarterly figure since the fourth quarter of 2021.
That is down from a peak of 297 mentions in the third quarter of 2022, the height of Europe's growth fears when a spike in energy costs and supply chain bottlenecks caused inflation to rise to multi-decade highs.
Risks of a recession are certainly rising, especially in the U.S., where indicators are pointing to a slowdown. The Atlanta Fed's closely followed GDPNow tracker suggests the U.S. economy could contract in the first quarter of this year.
Yet, looking at Europe's earnings, fourth quarter numbers have been mostly upbeat and they are expected to have increased 7.3% from the same quarter last year, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data.
Meanwhile, negative earnings revisions in Europe appear to have stabilised after troughing in October last year. Consensus calls for about 8% earnings growth in 2025 and about 14% in 2026. Healthy numbers by any stretch.
(Samuel Indyk)
TUESDAY'S OTHER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
EUROPE MOSTLY HIGHER, DEFENCE LEADS, TRAVEL LAGS CLICK HERE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: STOCKS SEEN OPENING SLIGHTLY HIGHER CLICK HERE
TARIFFS TOPPLE STOCKS, NO SIGN OF 'TRUMP PUT' CLICK HERE
Tesla market value plunges https://reut.rs/4hlPIVy
European shares mostly higher https://reut.rs/4ik9qSS
Recession? What recession?
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