COMMENT-USD/CHF usually drops in March, watch for risk aversion

March 6 (Reuters) - USD/CHF's March performance since 2000 shows it has dropped in 15 of the past 25 years, highlighting a seemingly inbuilt structural negativity this month.

While USD/CHF's trend in March points to a market that has a tendency to fall, seasonal trends should not be considered in isolation. Combined with technical and fundamental factors, however, they can be a useful tool.

USD/CHF is trading under the broken 0.8915 Fibo, a 61.8% retrace of the 0.8733 to 0.9210 (December to February) EBS rise. That increases the likelihood of a steeper drop probing the 200-DMA at 0.8822. 14-day momentum remains negative, highlighting the overall bearish market structure.

European shares have continued rebounding on hopes of easing trade tensions after U.S. President Donald Trump exempted automakers from his 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for one month. Traders need to watch for signs for a new bout of risk aversion in order for funds to flow into the safe-haven franc and put downward pressure on USD/CHF.