Why Walgreens Boots Alliance Rallied Today

Shares of Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ: WBA) rallied 7.6% on Tuesday, as of 2 p.m. ET.

It appears that a take-private deal with private equity firm Sycamore Partners is getting closer to fruition, with Bloomberg reporting "finishing touches" are being put on the terms of the deal.

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Investors can expect $11.30 to $11.40 per share

It was first reported that Sycamore was circling the beaten-down pharmacy giant for a takeover since December. But since that December spike, Walgreens' stock retreated, as skepticism emerged following the Department of Justice suing the pharmacy giant in late January over opioid prescription issuance.

But last week, reports circulated around Sycamore's proposed plans for Walgreens, including breaking up the sprawling pharmacy chain into three different parts, each with its own capital structures. That report seemed to lend credence to talk that a deal was still in the making and nearing closure.

Then today, Bloomberg reported that Sycamore is putting the "final touches" on a deal to take Walgreens private between $11.30 and $11.40 per share. As is customary, the deal would also require financing from banks, but Bloomberg also reported that most of the biggest blue chip banks in the country are putting financing proposals together.

Walgreens now appropriate only for merger arbitrageurs

The Bloomberg reports were keen to point out that a deal isn't final and talks could still falter. However, the level of detail in the report and major banks vying for financing seem to indicate a deal is highly likely.

Thus, Walgreens' stock shot up close to the reported deal price. Currently, shares trade at $11.02 after today's jump, leaving just a little bit of room for merger arbitrageurs to still make bets on a deal getting done.

The deal price may seem good or bad depending on when investors bought stock. Shares traded as low as the low $8 range in December, before the deal rumors emerged, but also traded close to $13 in early January as deal enthusiasm peaked following a stronger-than-expected earnings report.

Regardless, unless you are a trader who plays merger arbitrage, which is usually only profitable for professionals who can put lots of money to work, most investors should probably think about selling shares here. If a deal does fall apart, the stock could fall pretty hard. Meanwhile, it appears upside is limited to about $0.30 at this point.

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Billy Duberstein and/or his clients have no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.