FACTBOX-Brokerages see uncertain 2025 on worries over Trump tariffs

ReutersFeb 24, 2025 1:15 PM

Updates with FX forecasts from J.P.Morgan; U.S. 10-year yield target from Peel Hunt; U.S. inflation estimates from Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and Peel Hunt; Real GDP forecasts from Goldman Sachs, Barclays, J.P.Morgan, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank and Peel Hunt

Feb 24 (Reuters) - Uncertainties around U.S. policies could slow global economic growth modestly in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs to fuel volatility in global markets, raising inflationary pressures, which could limit major central banks from easing their monetary policy.

Following are the forecasts from some top banks on economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025.

Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:

Brokerage	S&P 500 target	U.S. 10-year yield target	EUR/USD	USD/JPY	USD/CNY
UBS Global Research	6400	4.25%	0.99	150	7.60
Goldman Sachs	6500	4.25%	0.97 (next 12 months)	162 (next 12-months)	7.50(next 12-months)
UBS Global Wealth Management	6600	4.00%	1.12	145	7.50
Wells Fargo Investment Institute	6500-6700	4.50%-5.00%	0.98-1.02	158-162
Societe Generale	6750	4.50% (Q4'25)	1.09	146.3	7.28
Deutsche Bank	7000	4.7% (Q4'25)	1.03 (Q4'25)		7.50
Nomura		4.25%	1.03	135	6.93
Morgan Stanley	6500	3.55% (Q4'25)	1.10 (Q4'25)	138 (Q4'25)	7.60 (Q4'25)
J.P.Morgan	6500	4.10% (Q3'25)	1.04	150	7.47
BofA Global Research	6666	4.25%	1.10	160	7.40
Wells Fargo		4.25%	0.98 (Q4'25)	154 (Q4'25)	7.60 (Q4'25)
BMO Capital Markets	6700
Jefferies	6000	4.43%
Barclays	6600	4.25%
Piper Sandler	6600
Berenberg		4.90%	1.08	140	7.30
BNP Paribas		4.65% (Q4'25)	1.00 (Q4'25)	156 (Q4'25)
Canaccord Genuity	6325
Citigroup	6500	4.20% (Q4'25)	1.05	139
ING			1.02	160	7.35
HSBC	6700
Evercore ISI	6800
Peel Hunt		4.50%

U.S. Inflation:

U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2025)
Brokerage	Headline CPI	Core PCE
Goldman Sachs	2.6%	2.6%
J.P.Morgan	2.4%	2.3%
Morgan Stanley	2.3%	2.5% (Q4/Q4)
Barclays	2.6%	2.5%
Wells Fargo	3.0%	2.8%
Societe Generale	2.3%	2.5%
Deutsche Bank	2.8% (Q4/Q4)	2.6% (Q4/Q4)
Wells Fargo Investment Institute	3.3%
UBS Global Wealth Management	2.6%
Citigroup	2.5%	2.5%
BofA Global Research	2.8%	2.3% (Q4/Q4)
Berenberg	2.7%	2.6%
BNP Paribas	2.3%
Nomura	3.0%	2.7%
ING	2.4%
Wells Fargo	2.6%	2.6%
Jefferies	2.3%	2.5%
UBS Global Research	2.1%
Peel Hunt	2.4%

Real GDP Growth:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025
Brokerage	GLOBAL	U.S.	CHINA	EURO AREA	UK	INDIA
UBS Global Research	3.0%	2.1%	4.0%	0.9%	1.1%	6.3%
Goldman Sachs	2.7%	2.4%	4.5%	0.7%	1%	6.4%
Barclays	3.1%	2.3%	4.3%	0.7%	1%	7.1%
Morgan Stanley	3.0%	2.1%	4.0%	1.0%	0.9%	6.5% (FY25/FY26)
J.P.Morgan	2.5%	2.4%	4.3%	0.7%	1%	6.0%
UBS Global Wealth Management	2.9%	1.9%	4.0%	0.9%	1.5%	6.3%
Wells Fargo	2.7%	2.3%	4.5%	0.9%	0.8%	5.9%
Societe Generale	3.3%	2.2%	4.7%	1.0%	1.6%
Citigroup	2.7%	1.4%	4.2%	1.0%	0.5%	6.7%
Nomura	2.9%	2.2	4.0%	1.1%	1.0%	5.8%
BofA Global Research	3.2%	2.4%	4.9%	0.9%	1.4%	7.0%
Deutsche Bank	3.1%	2.5%	4.8%	0.8%	1%	6.5%
Wells Fargo Investment Institute	2.6%	2.5%
Berenberg	2.7%	2.6%	5.0%	1.0%	0.9%	6.5%
BNP Paribas		2.1%	4.5%	1.0%	1.1%	6.2% (March 2026)
Peel Hunt		2.1%	4.9%	1.1%	1.3%	6.8%
ING		2.0%	4.6%	0.7%	1.4%
Jefferies		2.4% (Q4/Q4)

UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank

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