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RPT-BUZZ-COMMENT-Good chance yen's better fortune is short-lived

ReutersFeb 20, 2025 7:40 AM

Repeats comment related year-end yen flows

- There is a good chance the Japanese yen's better fortune is short-lived with the currency supported until the end of the current fiscal year and then weighed by domestic demand for foreign assets when the new one begins.

Traditionally, Japanese companies are buyers of the yen before the end of March most years with firms repatriating profits, before an influx of new funds in April is largely invested abroad by Japan's big investors.

Japan investment firms often work in sync and their combined power is significant with the potential to greatly influence the direction of the yen.

While changes in Bank Of Japan policy may influence companies to invest a little more cash domestically, most will still head abroad where interest rates are higher and central banks are not continuously buying bonds as happens in Japan.

With stock markets booming, risk appetite in Japan is likely to be robust with the potential for plenty of cash to head offshore in pursuit of returns higher than Japan's interest rate which will remain one of the lowest globally.

Although plans may halve bond purchases by 2026, BOJ buying is still the equivalent to continuous monthly FX intervention to weaken yen throughout the coming financial year which ends in March 2026.

Following a minor correction of its long-term uptrend, USD/JPY is well placed to rise further, supported by Japanese monetary policy and a U.S. interest rate that isn't expected to fall below 4% this year.

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