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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares cautiously higher, yen buoyed by upbeat GDP

ReutersFeb 17, 2025 5:33 AM
  • Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
  • Nikkei weathers rising yen, HK tech shares in limelight
  • Japan GDP beats forecasts, dollar hit by poor retail data
  • Investors wary of Russia-Ukraine talks, tariff news

SYDNEY, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Asia share markets crept higher on Monday as Hong Kong's tech sector stole the limelight, while upbeat Japanese economic growth contrasted with a weak U.S. retail sales report to lift the yen on the dollar.

Geopolitics remained in focus with reports that talks on the Russian-Ukraine conflict will begin in Saudi Arabia this week, though the participants are not entirely clear.

The imminent threat of reciprocal U.S. tariffs has receded until April, but the risk that they might include levies based on value added taxes in other countries was a major worry.

"The prospect, however misguided, of the U.S. levying an additional 20% tariff on all EU imports, on top of whatever else it deems appropriate, and to varying degrees on all other countries who have VAT regimes is a truly terrifying prospect in terms of the implications for global growth," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank.

The Financial Times reported on Sunday that the European Commission would explore tough import limits on certain foods made to different standards in an effort to protect its farmers, echoing President Donald Trump's reciprocal trade policy.

For now, investors were just relieved that major tariffs had not already been introduced and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS firmed 0.3%.

Tokyo's Nikkei .N225 edged up 0.2% after Japan reported surprisingly strong economic growth of an annualised 2.8% for the fourth quarter. The gains were limited by a further rise in the yen to 151.65 JPY=EBS per dollar.

South Korean shares .KS11 added 0.6% and Taiwan's .TWII rallied 1.3%.

Chinese blue chips .CSI300 were flat, with recent moves led by the Hong Kong market .HSI which jumped 7% last week on optimism the Chinese firms could deliver low cost versions of AI to compete with the West.

The rush was underpinned by a 24% surge in Alibaba 9988.HK on news it would partner with Apple AAPL.O to support iPhones' artificial intelligence services offering in China.

Alibaba reports earnings on Thursday and options imply the share could move 7.5% in either direction on the results.

Goldman Sachs has raised its outlook for Chinese growth and stocks, arguing that widespread adoption of AI could raise earnings per share by 2.5% a year over the next decade. It would also lift the fair value of Chinese equity by 15% to 20% and attract $200 billion of fund inflows.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index .STOXX has also been attracting global funds having climbed for eight straight weeks to be up 8% since the turn of the year.

EUROSTOXX 50 futures STXEc1 held steady on Monday, while DAX futures FDXc1 rose 0.2% and FTSE futures FFIc1 eased 0.1%.

DOLLAR NOT SO EXCEPTIONAL

A holiday in U.S. markets made for thin trading, though the S&P 500 futures ESc1 still rose 0.2% and Nasdaq futures NQc1 0.3%. Wall Street was briefly fazed by the retail sales report on Friday but the S&P 500 ended the week up 1.5%, while the Nasdaq gained 2.6%. .N

Treasuries rallied on the soft sales numbers as markets swung back toward pricing in two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year rather than just one. 0#USDIRPR

Minutes of the Fed's last meeting are due on Wednesday and should offer some detail about the outlook for further easing, while there are at least six Fed officials due to speak.

Yields on 10-year Treasuries US10YT=RR were holding at 4.478%, well off a top of 4.660% hit in the middle of last week.

The drop in yields undermined the dollar and left the index at 106.84 -USD after a loss of 1.2% last week. The euro was firm at $1.0498 EUR=D3, having rallied 1.6% last week, and aiming to test resistance at $1.0533.

The pound held at $1.2592 GBP=D3 ahead of a raft of UK data including employment, wages and consumer prices, which will impact market wagers on the timing of the next rate cut.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is due to speak this week and will no doubt be questioned on the outlook.

Central banks in Australia and New Zealand hold policy meetings this week and are both expected to cut interest rates, the former by 25 basis points and the latter by twice that.

In commodity markets, gold was not far from record highs at $2,899 an ounce XAU= having rallied for seven weeks straight. GOL/

Oil has had a tougher time as the prospect of peace talks on Ukraine could lead to greater supply should sanctions on Russian output be relaxed. O/R

Brent LCOc1 slipped another 12 cents to $74.62 a barrel, while U.S. crude CLc1 fell 19 cents to $70.55 per barrel.

Asia stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

Asia-Pacific valuations https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA

To read Reuters Markets and Finance news, click on https://www.reuters.com/finance/markets For the state of play of Asian stock markets please click on: 0#.INDEXA

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