LIVE MARKETS-Careful what you wish for

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR

Wall Street strategists mostly offer estimates that predict the future as best they can.

But Edward Stanley at Morgan Stanley did something different with a "What if..." email related to a "World in 2030" report that poses gnarly questions without real answers.

"Too often we shy away from asking uncomfortable questions which challenge the market's received wisdom," said Stanley.

After noting that 2.4% of stocks generated all net shareholder returns since 1990 and that "these stocks largely piggy-backed on the structural themes of the day: Internet and mobile," the equity strategist suggests that it may be worth it to debate highly unpredictable themes.

He starts by asking what happens if "the rise of fully autonomous vehicles comes sooner than expected" and "if 10% of the existing fleet of global vehicle numbers can operate as robotic, embodied agents and at vastly higher utilisation rate."

How does it impact insurance, manufacturing, supply chains and energy markets. And would it free up some of the 30% of urban land used for parking if car ownership is outdated. Will kids born after 2010 never learn how to drive? Would it change urban vs suburban real estate as we know it?

Then he asks what if the costs of humanoid robots "deflate faster than we expect below $20,000 per unit."

Would it erase labor shortages in hospitality, social care, among electricians? Could it result in a shorter-than-5-days work week, "universal basic income provision?" But then how would this work with high government debt burdens?

Regarding AI what if "self-learning agents arbitrage away the gig-economy?" Could they also allow people "to swap telco contracts, churn car insurance and purge unwanted subscriptions in a way that has never been so simple."

And what if the sub-5-day working week lands in manufacturing and services before AI leads to the creation of new kinds of jobs? And then there's an "exponential rise in time spent alone" and the health impacts that would bring?

In energy he also brings up the idea of AI sovereignty, negative power prices and a nuclear renaissance.

In healthcare, what happens with obesity drugs, will governments, looking to boost productivity "provide widespread insurance coverage for these drugs."

What if AI leads to "cures for multiple chronic diseases" extending life expectancy and exponentially improving the US healthcare dollar's return on investment.

And, reminding us that same-day e-commerce delivery was once unimaginable what if this happens in healthcare, "immediate appointments, next-day diagnostics, genomes sequenced for <$100, bending the cost curve to bring cheap, pre-emptive and personalised medication," he wonders.

Could it lead to an order of magnitude greater number of people over the age of 100 in the next decade, "putting overwhelming pressure on Western government finances as well as an accentuated structural challenge for young people to own their own home?"

Or maybe these uncomfortable questions are too far out there and we now need to just go lie down after reading them?

(Sinéad Carew)

FOR THURSDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS' POSTS:

CAN THE S&P 500 DO WHAT THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS COULDN'T? - CLICK HERE

PPI, JOBLESS CLAIMS: RATE CUT THIS YEAR? YEAH, RIGHT - CLICK HERE

WALL STREET RISES WITH EARNINGS HELP EVEN AS INFLATION STICKS - CLICK HERE

U.S. STOCK FUTURES HIGHER, YIELDS LOWER, DESPITE HOT PPI - CLICK HERE

EUROPEAN DEFENCE: "THIS IS JUST THE START OF A SUPER-CYCLE" - CLICK HERE

THREE REASONS WHY EUROPEAN NATURAL GAS PRICES CAN FALL - CLICK HERE

HERE'S WHY THE ECB SHOULDN’T FOLLOW A HAWKISH FED - CLICK HERE

ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER STOXX RECORD - CLICK HERE

EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL - UKRAINE PEACE TALKS TOP OF MIND - CLICK HERE

MORNING BID UKRAINE TALKS ABSORB US INFLATION SHOCK - CLICK HERE