BREAKINGVIEWS-Ukraine ‘peace dividend’ will be paid by Europe

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own. Updates to add graphic.

By Pierre Briancon

BERLIN, Feb 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Europe should not expect any “peace dividend” from the truce Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin say they are ready to strike on Ukraine. Even though European nations have provided most of the $213 billion in financial support allocated to Ukraine since the Russian invasion three years ago, they were snubbed by the U.S. president after talks with his Russian counterpart on Wednesday. The bill they now face is much higher than merely the cost of implementing any truce.

Trump’s Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth laid out the new rules of the game in a speech at NATO headquarters. The U.S., he said, will neither provide troops nor aid to help implement any would-be truce with Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has already accepted the principle of territorial concessions, and has estimated around 200,000 troops may be needed to guarantee a ceasefire on the ground. Even half such a force would represent a burden for the French and UK armies, which might bear the brunt of the effort.

But looking ahead, a peace agreement would cause a greater headache. It would embolden Russia by rewarding its territorial ambitions. Coupled with the overt U.S. intention to pull the security blanket that has protected Europe since World War Two, Europe would have to accelerate the military buildup it embarked on 10 years ago when Putin annexed Crimea.

European governments’ spending on defence jumped 12% in real terms last year to $447 billion, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Germany, the UK, France and Italy together accounted for 60% of that amount. At $968 billion, U.S. defence spending was more than twice as much.

Most European members of NATO are now forking out around 2% of GDP on their military, and according to most experts they’d need to boost that to 3% to cope with current challenges. But even at 2024 rates of growth it would take five years to reach that level, and 10 years to reach the 5% of GDP that Trump has suggested they should spend, according to the IISS.

Whatever their tight fiscal constraints, Europeans have little choice. They’re the ones who will have to pay the supposed “peace dividend” generated by an elusive Ukraine truce. And they can’t wait much time before they come up with some form of common strategic doctrine, beginning with a basic agreement on where the threats come from.

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CONTEXT NEWS

U.S. President Donald Trump said on February 12 that both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expressed a desire for peace in separate phone calls with him, and that he had ordered top U.S. officials to begin talks on ending the war in Ukraine.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told a meeting of Kyiv’s military allies at NATO headquarters on the same day that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders was unrealistic, and that the Trump administration does not see NATO membership for Kyiv as part of a solution to the war triggered by Russia’s invasion.

German defence group Rheinmetall’s shares fell 4.5% to 695 euros in initial trading on February 13, before recovering to 724 euros by 0915 GMT, down 0.5%.