LIVE MARKETS-Assessing the market impact of a possible Ukraine ceasefire

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ASSESSING THE MARKET IMPACT OF A POSSIBLE UKRAINE CEASEFIRE

Since Trump's reelection in November, markets have mainly focused on trade tariffs while geopolitics has taken a back seat, but growing expectations for a ceasefire in Ukraine have investors taking note.

A meeting between Trump and his Russian counterpart Putin is not yet in the diary, but preparations are at an "advanced stage" a Russian lawmaker said last week.

"While there are undoubtedly many hurdles to overcome, our baseline is still that a ceasefire is likely in H1 of 2025," Citi analysts say.

"Of course, to be a positive for European assets, the final deal would have to be orderly, i.e. securing a rump Ukraine, rather than just yielding to Russia’s wishes."

Barclays believes the current headlines are helping to lift sentiment in Europe, where the STOXX 600 .STOXX has risen over 7% year-to-date, compared to a 2.5% gain for the S&P 500 .SPX.

"We think that further progress towards a truce in Ukraine would support sentiment on EU and CEE equities," Barclays says.

Kepler Cheuvreux analysts think companies in the construction, materials, food production and chemicals sectors are among those that could benefit from the end to the war. A full list is

below:

(Samuel Indyk)

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