GRAPHIC-Take Five: Trump's tariff flip-flops

Updates Friday story with Trump tariffs on steel and aluminium in paragraph 6, Ecuador elections paras 23-27

Feb 10 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's fast-changing tariff decisions have super-charged market volatility and investor uncertainty, with little respite in prospect in the days ahead.

There is plenty of potential for more Trump surprises on anything from tariffs to geopolitics, alongside the usual set events such as U.S. inflation data.

And investors are keenly watching one market that has had its best start to the year in a decade versus Wall Street.

Here is your look at the week ahead from Rae Wee in Singapore, Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Danilo Masoni in Milan and Naomi Rovnick and Marc Jones in London.

1/ TALKING TARIFFS

Markets were cheered by Trump's decision to suspend tariffs on Mexico and Canada hours before they were due to come into force. But investors are not sure if the tariff talk is brinksmanship to extract concessions or will act to deepen global rivalries and intensify economic attacks on the U.S..

On Sunday, Trump said he would introduce new 25% tariffs on all U.S. imports of steel and aluminium on top of existing metals duties, firing another shot in his trade war.

Columbia Threadneedle chief EMEA economist Steven Bell said Trump negotiating some tariffs away may not prevent him from threatening them again. Bell warns of a possible trade war that could upend the established world order.

Deeper global rivalries could also intensify efforts by China, Brazil, Russia and Iran to weaken emerging nations' reliance on the U.S. currency for trade, which some economists say represents a growing challenge to dollar hegemony.

2/ PRICE POINTS

Release of a key gauge of monthly U.S. consumer prices is set to test investor nerves after Trump's tariff threats triggered warnings from several Fed officials of the risk of an inflation pickup.

January's consumer price index on February 12 is expected to show a 0.3% monthly increase, a Reuters poll shows.

Last month's report showed core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, moderated after barely budging for four straight months, encouraging investors.

But the monetary policy outlook remains uncertain after the Fed paused easing last month and Trump's tariff push began.

3/ FACE OFF

Round two of the Sino-U.S. trade war has only just begun, and investors are gearing up for a prolonged tit-for-tat between the world's two largest economies.

Near-term focus remains on whether a highly anticipated conversation between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping actually happens, and if the U.S. President could grant some sort of deferment, as he did with Mexico and Canada.

But China has enough problems on its own.

The wait for further stimulus measures from Beijing is proving futile and the road to recovery is seemingly a long and arduous one, meaning more investors are avoiding a market that was once a must-have in their portfolios.

And Chinese consumer price data on Sunday is likely to underscore reasons to keep those bearish bets on China for now.

4/ EUROPE POWERS UP

Europe Inc is ticking all the boxes: cheap valuations, earnings growth and momentum. Investors are pouring in.

Powered by gains in Frankfurt, London, Milan, and Paris, the STOXX 600 .STOXX has marked its best performance since 2015 against Wall Street over the first six weeks of 2025.

However, given its history of short-lived outperformance, the question remains: will this rally last, or is it just a flash in the pan?

There are several potential catalysts for more near-term gains. Tariffs are a wild card, but if the stars align, Germany might loosen fiscal policy and Ukraine tensions may ease.

European earnings growth is forecast at 7.9% in 2025, from 1% last year and after a 3.9% fall in 2023. U.S. earnings will grow at a slower rate, but still above Europe.

5/ DON'T GO AWAY

Ecuador's elections are rarely boring, and Sunday's vote has been no exception.

The presidential race will go to an April 13 runoff if current trends in the count persist, the head of the national electoral council said late on Sunday, as incumbent Daniel Noboa led leftist lawyer Luisa Gonzalez by less than 1%.

Gonzalez, who faced Noboa at the polls in 2023, is vying to be Ecuador's first woman president.

Opinion polls had suggested banana-business heir Noboa could win outright, but he was barely leading the count late on Sunday, with 44.5% to Gonzalez's 44.1%, with 78.7% of ballot boxes counted.

Noboa is favoured by the market as the continuity candidate, but it is complicated. He has had a very public falling-out with his Vice President Veronica Abad, whom he left in charge during his unpaid campaign leave. He also just beat Trump to the punch by slapping 27% tariffs on Mexico.