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BUZZ-COMMENT-Asset managers influence may underpin EUR/USD

ReutersFeb 6, 2025 3:54 PM

- EUR/USD traded lower Thursday as investors unwound some short-term positions but recent shifts in asset manager positions suggests downside for the euro may not be the slam dunk many investors expect.

CFTC data indicates the rise in short positions for asset managers 1099741ASHT peaked at the end of December. Positions have been reduced since then and sit at levels not seen since mid December.

The CFTC data also shows reduction of asset manger long positions ended in early December and have increased since then to their largest since mid November.

The position adjustments correlate with the possible end of EUR/USD's down trend off September's high and the pair's recent rally.

The position adjustments could be a result of asset managers looking for value outside of highly priced U.S. assets.

Should U.S. economic weakness emerge investors may look to reduce exposure to U.S. assets and put resources elsewhere.

The euro might benefit if asset managers put some of those resources to work in Europe.

The U.S. January employment report Friday could determine if asset managers adjust positions further.

A downbeat jobs report could weigh on U.S. assets due to increase probability of recession.

EUR/USD might also benefit from a weak report as Fed SRAM and ECB FEIZ5 terminal rate and German-U.S. spreads could tighten as the dollar's yield advantage over the euro may decrease.

For more click on FXBUZ

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