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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam markets higher on easing tariff fears; Mexican peso flat ahead of decision

ReutersFeb 6, 2025 3:40 PM
  • Trump says Israel would hand over Gaza after fighting
  • China challenges Trump tariffs at WTO
  • Mexico's interest rate decision due
  • MSCI Latam FX up 0.5%, stocks advance 0.7%

By Purvi Agarwal

- Most Latin American markets rose on Thursday as investors continued to await more clues on U.S. President Donald Trump's stance on Gaza and a trade war with China.

MSCI's index tracking Latin American currencies .MILA00000CUS was 0.5% higher, while the stocks measure .MILA00000PUS was up 0.7%, trading at its highest level since early December.

Investors were monitoring geopolitical conflicts, for any Trump-caused developments.

Israel's shekel ILS= and dollar bonds in the country and its neighbors were little changed.

Russia's rouble RUB= rallied, while Ukraine's dollar bonds inched up over 1 cent each, on hopes of a conclusion to the conflict after the countries said they were in touch with the U.S. administration.

In Latin America, the Mexican peso MXN= was up 0.1% ahead of a monetary policy decision where the central bank is widely expected to deliver a jumbo 50 basis point rate cut.

"We assess a higher than market pricing probability of a smaller 25bps rate cut given lingering uncertainty and the scar-tissue left by the US announcement of tariffs on Mexico, and subsequent decision to delay (hold) implementation," analysts at Goldman Sachs said.

"Overall, the risk-reward of accelerating the pace of rate cuts at this meeting is not favorable."

An official on Wednesday said that Mexico and the U.S. had agreed to economic dialogue in a week riddled with changing stances on tariffs and volatile moves in exposed economies.

China challenged the duties and Trump's cancellation of a duty-free exemption for low-value packages at the World Trade Organization.

On the day, however, markets looked past risks of a global trade war, and looked for any signs of de-escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

Stocks in Mexico .MXX were up 0.7%, aided by an over 5% boost in Cemex CEMEXCPO.MX after the cement maker posted a net profit in the fourth quarter and rolled out a $350 million savings program.

Higher oil prices also helped boost currencies in Latin America, with the Colombian peso COL= up 0.5%, while its stocks .COLCAP were up 0.3%.

Copper prices hitting multi-week highs lifted the Chilean peso CLP= to a near three month high.

The Brazilian real BRL= was up 0.2%, after snapping a 12-session win streak on Wednesday.

Elsewhere, the Czech central bank resumed its interest rate-cutting cycle, lowering the main two-week repo rate by 25 basis points.

Highlights:

Trump's aid cuts imperil emerging market investment cash

Ecuador banana heir Noboa seeks full presidential term to push on with crime crackdown

Zimbabwe central bank keeps policy rate at 35%

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1101.15

0.49

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2050.39

0.69

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

125728.53

0.15

Mexico IPC .MXX

51916.82

0.67

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

7281.27

0.1

Argentina Merval .MERV

2508690.97

1.25

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1514.76

0.3

Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.7855

0.2

Mexico peso MXN=

20.549

0.08

Chile peso CLP=

965.8

0.5

Colombia peso COP=

4151.67

0.52

Peru sol PEN=

3.7086

0.15

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

1054

0

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1195

1.67

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