LIVE MARKETS-So goes January, so goes the year?

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SO GOES JANUARY, SO GOES THE YEAR?

The S&P 500 index .SPX kicked off 2025 with a January gain of 2.7%.

With this, Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA, is taking a look at some stats that may provide bulls with some comfort, in regards to what the benchmark index's prospects for the rest of the year may be.

"Investors are anticipators and constantly attempt to be one step ahead of the pack. Many look to year-ahead stock market indicators found in The Stock Trader’s Almanac, including 'As goes January, so goes the year,'" writes Stovall in a note.

According to Stovall, this adage shows that since WWII, if the S&P 500 rose in price during the first month of the year, the market was higher 86% of the time for the full year (vs the 71% average for all years) and scored an average increase of 16.2% (vs 9.2% for all years).

Better yet, Stovall says that a January gain in year one of the four-year presidential cycle saw the S&P 500 surge an average of 18.3% in price and post a gain 91% of the time.

Despite knowing that past results are no guarantee of future performance, Stovall says that investors may be encouraged to find that this adage also applies to S&P 500 sectors and sub-industries.

He notes that for all years since 1990, an equal weighting of the four sectors with the highest January returns went on to beat the market in the following 12 months.

"Specifically, the top four sectors posted an average 11.4% price rise vs a 10.0% gain for the S&P 500, beating the market in two out of every three years," Stovall says.

The top four S&P 500 sectors in January were communication services .SPLRCL, which advanced 9%, healthcare .SPXHC which gained 6.6%, financials .SPSY which rallied 6.4%, and materials .SPLRCM which rose 5.5%.

(Terence Gabriel)

FOR MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:

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