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EMERGING MARKETS-Indonesian rupiah, Korean won hit by surprise central bank rate calls

ReutersJan 16, 2025 8:14 AM

South Korea holds rates at 3.00%

Korean stocks at near 1-week high

Rupiah slips to 6-month low

Updates at 0714 GMT

By Sneha Kumar and Sameer Manekar

- The Indonesian rupiah stayed near six-month lows on Thursday, while the South Korean won snapped a three-day winning streak after both countries' central banks shocked investors by eschewing widely anticipated interest rate calls.

The rupiah IDR= slipped 0.4% to 16,385 per U.S. dollar, a level not seen since early July last year and adding to a 0.3% drop on Wednesday when Bank Indonesia (BI) unexpectedly slashed interest rates by 25 basis points.

"The surprise decision to pivot back to rate cuts in the face of FX pressures seems abrupt and incongruous with BI's prioritisation of IDR stability over the past two years," Barclays' analysts said.

They expect the rupiah to test 16,500 by the end of the quarter.

The South Korean won KRW=KFTC declined 0.1%, slipping from a one-week high, after the Bank of Korea (BOK) held interest rates, against expectations of a quarter-point cut.

The decision appears to be primarily of FX consideration, said Frances Cheung, head of FX and rates strategy at OCBC.

"Nevertheless, Governor Rhee (Chang-yong) tried to keep the market's rate-cut expectations alive and we see a 25 bps cut in February as a high possibility."

The two decisions underscore the challenges Asian central banks face as they try to spur growth and defend their currencies against a towering dollar, while preparing for the higher tariffs pledged by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.

On the day, however, most Asian currencies found support as the dollar retreated after cooling U.S. inflation data knocked down bond yields and increased the likelihood of more than just one Federal Reserve rate cut this year.

Still, "Investors are reluctant to price more Fed funds rate cuts until the next cut materialises as uncertainty is high on various fronts, including inflation and tariffs," said Cheung.

An index of emerging market currencies .MIEM00000CUS edged higher, continuing its recovery from a six-month low earlier in the week.

Among equities, while the won declined, stocks in Seoul .KS11 rose 1.2% to a nearly one-week high.

Singaporean equities .STI rose 0.7%, its first gain in six sessions, while stocks in the Philippines .PSI reversed earlier gains to fall 1%.

Taiwanese stocks .TWII closed 2.3%. TSMC 2330.TW, the world's largest contract chipmaker, ended 3.8% higher, ahead of its quarterly results.

Elsewhere, the Israeli shekel ILS=D3 rose to a one-month high after the news of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** Japan wholesale inflation steady near 4%, keeps alive BOJ rate-hike chance

** Detained South Korea's Yoon will not attend questioning, lawyer says

** Indonesia central bank says rupiah's weakness under control

Asian stocks and currencies at 0714 GMT

COUNTRY

FX RIC

FX DAILY %

FX YTD %

INDEX

STOCKS DAILY %

STOCKS YTD %

Japan

JPY=

+0.19

+0.65

.N225

0.33

-3.31

China

CNY=CFXS

0.00

-0.44

.SSEC

0.32

-3.41

India

INR=IN

-0.14

-1.00

.NSEI

0.37

-1.47

Indonesia

IDR=

-0.28

-1.65

.JKSE

1.10

1.10

Malaysia

MYR=

-0.02

-0.67

.KLSE

-0.16

-5.04

Philippines

PHP=

+0.22

-0.72

.PSI

-1.03

-4.03

S.Korea

KRW=KFTC

-0.14

+1.07

.KS11

1.23

5.33

Singapore

SGD=

-0.06

-0.18

.STI

0.72

0.32

Taiwan

TWD=TP

+0.40

-0.46

.TWII

2.27

-0.04

Thailand

THB=TH

+0.01

-0.80

.SETI

0.00

-3.36

(Reporting by Sneha Kumar in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Ankur Bannerjee in Singapore; Editing by Saad Sayeed and Savio D'Souza)

((Sneha.kumar@thomsonreuters.com))

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