LIVE MARKETS-S&P 500 index: Year-end stumble stains otherwise strong year

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S&P 500 INDEX: YEAR-END STUMBLE STAINS OTHERWISE STRONG YEAR

After hitting a wall in early December, the S&P 500 index .SPX has stumbled. The benchmark index ended Monday at 5,906.94 putting it down 3.16% from its 6,099.97 December 6 intraday record high, and down 3.01% from its 6,090.27 December 6 record intraday close.

And so far, Santa's stocking stuffer is a disappointment. The benchmark index is now off around 1.1% during the Santa Claus Rally period which runs the last five trading days of December through the first two trading days of January.

The SPX on average has gained 1.3% during this period, according to data from the Stock Trader's Almanac going back to 1969.

Of note, with Monday's loss, the SPX has now suffered two 1%+ down days in the last five trading days of the year. Bespoke Investments noted early Monday that if this were to happen, and indeed it did, it would be "the first time since at least 1952," so clearly it's a rare event.

According to LSEG data, since 1928, and prior to this year, this has only happened once, in 1937. That said, with just one prior instance for this stat, not much can be reasonably extrapolated from it alone. (The S&P 500 did advance 25% in 1938).

In any event, with just one trading day to go, the SPX is up about 24% in 2024. It rose 24.23% in 2023.

Meanwhile, on Monday, the index fell as low as 5,869.16, before paring its losses:

Support is at the Dec. 20 low at 5,832.3.

The rising 20-week moving average (WMA) is now around 5,825. Since reclaiming the 20-WMA on a weekly closing basis in early November 2023, the SPX has not registered a weekly close back below it.

The rising 10-WMA, which is now around 5,955, is a hurdle.

(Terence Gabriel)

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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)