Meet the Best-Performing S&P 500 Stock This Year. It's New to the Index, and You Won't Believe What Wall Street Expects From It in 2025.

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) soared from the very start of the year, confirming its presence in a bull market and going on to reach record high after record high. And today, the benchmark continues this momentum, now heading for an annual gain of more than 27%. That follows last year's 24% increase, marking two fantastic years for investors.

Technology companies have contributed significantly to the movement, as investors poured into those winning in the area of artificial intelligence (AI). With AI's promise to revolutionize many industries, investors have been eager to get into the space early -- and maximize their gains. And it just so happens that this year's best-performing S&P 500 company is one that launched a major AI-powered platform just a year ago.

Though this company has been around for about 20 years, its growth has truly taken off in recent times, with earnings reaching records. This player has done so well that the S&P 500 invited it to join this year, and it entered in September.

Let's meet this company that's heading for a 300% increase this year -- and discover Wall Street's surprising expectations for this player in 2025.

Image source: Getty Images.

Using data for game-changing decisions

This particular company isn't a developer of the parts needed to make AI function -- such as chips or servers. Instead, it uses AI to fuel an incredibly powerful platform that's been known for serving governments for years. This company's software helps customers aggregate all of their data -- which may be quite dispersed and seem unrelated -- and use it to make potentially game-changing decisions. From governments to hospitals, airlines, and restaurant chains, customers are rushing to sign on for this system that could help them save time and money and excel across a variety of projects.

The top-performing AI company behind this technology is Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR), and demand from both government and commercial customers has driven double-digit revenue growth in recent quarters. What's particularly exciting is Palantir's growth in commercial customers -- from 14 U.S. commercial customers four years ago, Palantir has progressed to about 300 today. And this may be just the beginning as companies aim to harness AI to become more efficient and accelerate growth.

Deal value is looking positive too, with Palantir signing more than 100 deals worth more than $1 million.

And to keep this growth going, Palantir came up with a genius idea: It introduces potential customers to its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) through AIP boot camps. These sessions help them go from zero to a potential use case in a matter of hours -- so they immediately can see how AIP will impact their businesses. Palantir has said these boot camps have driven sales growth, and in the recent quarter, the company spoke of how they converted into new deals -- in fact, many customers' boot camps translated into seven-figure deals in less than two months.

What Wall Street says will happen next

So, it's no surprise that Palantir stock has taken off this year. But according to Wall Street, the stock might have gone too far, too fast. The average analyst estimate calls for a more than 40% decline from this level over the coming 12 months. The stock has become expensive, trading for a mind-blowing 185x forward earnings estimates. All of this means that, even though Palantir is growing in leaps and bounds, Wall Street expects a drop in the stock price in 2025.

Does this mean you should avoid Palantir? Not necessarily. Yes, the stock looks expensive according to its forward price-to-earnings ratio. But it's important to note that this measure generally takes into account expected earnings in the coming year -- and doesn't consider what Palantir's earnings picture may look like five or 10 years down the road.

I still don't see Palantir as the best stock for everyone today -- for example, a value investor should look elsewhere. But long-term investors interested in growth companies that are in the early stages of their growth stories should take a second look at this top S&P 500 performer, in spite of its hefty valuation. Over time, investors still could win by investing in Palantir, thanks to the unstoppable momentum of its commercial business and the company's AI-driven platform.

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Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.