Greenbrier misses Q2 revenue estimates, cuts 2026 revenue forecast

Overview

• U.S. rail equipment supplier's fiscal Q2 revenue declined sequentially and missed analyst expectations

• Diluted EPS for fiscal Q2 fell to $0.47 amid lower production rates and deliveries

• Company raised quarterly dividend by 6% to $0.34 per share

Outlook

• Greenbrier lowers FY26 deliveries forecast to 15,350-16,350 units from 17,500-20,500 units

• Company now sees FY26 revenue at $2.4 bln-$2.5 bln, down from $2.7 bln-$3.2 bln

• Greenbrier expects double-digit lease fleet growth in FY26 to boost recurring revenue

Result Drivers

• FEWER DELIVERIES - Revenue and manufacturing segment results were primarily hurt by a decline in railcar deliveries

• LOWER PRODUCTION RATES - Gross margin and manufacturing profitability were affected by lower production rates and planned facility shutdowns

• TIMING OF FLEET OPTIMIZATION - Net gain on disposition of equipment and leasing segment revenue were influenced by the timing of fleet optimization activities

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "hold" and the breakdown of recommendations is 1 "strong buy" or "buy", no "hold" and 2 "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the heavy machinery & vehicles peer group is "buy."

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Greenbrier Companies Inc is $49.00, about 1.3% above its April 6 closing price of $48.36

• The stock recently traded at 11 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 11 three months ago

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