FACTBOX-Wall Street brokerages expect Fed rate cuts starting June
March 18 (Reuters) - Most major brokerages expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver interest-rate cuts starting June, with a few such as Goldman Sachs and Barclays pushing back their calls for the first move to September as inflation concerns have intensified with the Middle East war pushing up oil prices.
Traders were also bracing for the Fed's decision later on Wednesday, with CME's FedWatch tool showing a 98.9% probability of no change in rates.
Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2026:
Brokerage | Total cuts in 2026 | No. of cuts in 2026 | Fed Funds Rate |
Citigroup | 75 bps | 3 (in June, July and September) | 2.75-3.00% |
Goldman Sachs | 50 bps | 2 (in September and December) | 3.00-3.25% |
Morgan Stanley | 50 bps | 2 (in June and September) | 3.00-3.25% |
BofA Global Research | 50 bps | 2 (in June and July) | 3.00-3.25% |
Wells Fargo | 50 bps | 2 (in June and September) | 3.00-3.25% |
Nomura | 50 bps | 2 (in June and September) | 3.00-3.25% |
Barclays | 25 bps | 1 (in September) | 3.25-3.50% |
UBS Global Research | 50 bps | 2 (July and October) | 3.00-3.25% |
UBS Global Wealth Management | 50 bps | 2 (June and September) | 3.00-3.25% |
Deutsche Bank | 25 bps | 1 (in September) | 3.25-3.50% |
BNP Paribas | No rate cuts | - | 3.50-3.75% |
HSBC | No rate cuts | - | 3.50-3.75% |
J.P.Morgan | No rate cuts | - | 3.50-3.75% |
Standard Chartered | No rate cuts | - | 3.50-3.75% |
Macquarie | Rate hike (in H1 2027) | - | - |
