Canada's Greenfire posts Q4 free cash flow deficit, ends year debt-free

Overview

• Canadian oil sands producer's Q4 adjusted free cash flow was negative amid lower bitumen production

• Company ended 2025 debt-free after redeeming all 2028 notes and completing a rights offering

• Q4 production decline at Expansion Asset offset by Demo Asset optimization and new sulphur removal facilities

Outlook

• Greenfire lowers 2026 production guidance to 13,500-15,500 bbls/d from 15,500-16,500 bbls/d

• Company plans to drill 25 new well-pairs across three SAGD pads in next 12 months

• Greenfire expects first oil from Pad 7 in Q4 2026

Result Drivers

• EXPANSION ASSET DECLINE - Q4 production at the Expansion Asset fell 5% from the prior quarter due to base production declines

• DEMO ASSET OPTIMIZATION - Demo Asset Q4 production rose 9% from the prior quarter, attributed to continued optimization of base well performance

• SULPHUR REMOVAL FACILITIES - Installation and commissioning of sulphur removal facilities at the Expansion Asset restored regulatory compliance for sulphur dioxide emissions

Company press release: ID:nNFC3XPRXZ

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The one available analyst rating on the shares is "hold"

• The average consensus recommendation for the oil & gas exploration and production peer group is "buy."

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Greenfire Resources Ltd is C$7.00, about 19.4% below its March 12 closing price of C$8.68

• The stock recently traded at 868 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 26 three months ago

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