American Public Education beats Q4 revenue estimates on high enrollments

Overview

• U.S. education provider's Q4 revenue fell 3.5% yr/yr but beat analyst expectations

• Q4 adjusted EBITDA declined 8.6%, impacted by government shutdown and GSUSA sale

• Company authorized $50 mln share repurchase and completed debt refinancing to lower interest expense

Outlook

• Company sees Q1 2026 revenue between $173.0 mln and $175.0 mln

• American Public Education expects FY 2026 revenue of $685.0 mln to $695.0 mln

• Company expects FY 2026 diluted EPS of $2.15 to $2.47 per share

Result Drivers

• GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN - Co said Q4 revenue and adjusted EBITDA were negatively affected by the federal government shutdown

• SEGMENT ENROLLMENT GROWTH - Rasmussen University and Hondros College of Nursing revenue rose due to increased enrollments

• GSUSA SALE IMPACT - Sale of Graduate School USA reduced consolidated revenue; excluding this, revenue would have been flat yr/yr

Company press release: ID:nPn3qKsK5a

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 7 "strong buy" or "buy", 1 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the miscellaneous educational service providers peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for American Public Education Inc is $50.00, about 9.3% above its March 11 closing price of $45.74

• The stock recently traded at 20 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 17 three months ago

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