CORRECTED-Canada's NFI Group misses Q4 revenue estimates

Overview

• Canada bus maker's fiscal Q4 revenue rose 22.5% yr/yr but missed analyst expectations

• Adjusted EPS for fiscal Q4 beat analyst expectations, driven by margin expansion and backlog conversion

• Quarter benefited from battery settlement and higher-margin deliveries

Outlook

• NFI sees 2026 revenue between $3.9 bln and $4.2 bln

• Company expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $370 mln to $410 mln

• NFI says tariff changes, supply chain issues and funding could impact 2026 results

Result Drivers

• HIGHER DELIVERIES AND PRODUCT MIX - Co said increased deliveries and a favorable product mix, including more heavy-duty transit and zero-emission buses, drove manufacturing revenue and margin gains

• BATTERY SETTLEMENT - Net earnings benefited from a $114.5 mln after-tax recovery related to a battery settlement

• TARIFF IMPACTS - Aftermarket margins were negatively affected by tariffs, despite increased parts sales

Company press release: ID:nGNX4THFfp

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 7 "strong buy" or "buy", no "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the heavy machinery & vehicles peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for NFI Group Inc is C$22.00, about 38.5% above its March 11 closing price of C$15.89

• The stock recently traded at 10 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 9 three months ago

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