Canada's Propel Q4 revenue misses estimates

Overview

• Canada fintech firm's Q4 revenue rose 21% but missed analyst expectations

• Adjusted EPS for Q4 missed analyst expectations

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 decreased 32%

Outlook

• Propel targets 2026 revenue between $725 mln and $775 mln

• Company expects 2026 net income of $70 mln to $90 mln

• Propel anticipates 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $152.5 mln to $177.5 mln

Result Drivers

• SEASONAL DEMAND - Strong seasonal consumer demand and improved late-quarter credit performance drove record quarterly Total Originations Funded and Ending CLAB

• UNDERWRITING APPROACH - Propel maintained a disciplined underwriting approach, moderating origination activity early in the quarter due to macroeconomic pressures

• LATE-QUARTER ORIGINATION - Late-quarter origination growth required upfront provisioning and acquisition spend, impacting Q4 profitability while revenue will be earned in future periods

Company press release: ID:nCNWtXfMWa

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 8 "strong buy" or "buy", no "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the consumer lending peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Propel Holdings Inc is C$38.00, about 80.9% above its February 27 closing price of C$21.01

• The stock recently traded at 6 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 7 three months ago

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