Prices investors will pay for tariff refund claims surge after Supreme Court decision

By Timothy Aeppel and Laura Matthews

Feb 24 (Reuters) - The prices importers can get from selling rights to potential government refunds have surged in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs are illegal.

The high court did not order refunds of the estimated $175 billion the government has taken in since last February, but many businesses are now gearing up for what are likely to be complex legal battles to make such claims.

Many companies have hedged their bets in recent months by selling rights to some or all of their potential refunds to outside investors for a fraction of their face value. Since the court ruled that the taxes are illegal, the companies keep those advance payments, and the outside investors stand to collect anything that is eventually returned.

Known as “special situations” trades, these deals are attractive to investors because the assets are uncorrelated to broader markets, according to legal sources who are working with buyers and sellers in the market.

Amy Pasacreta, a lawyer on Orrick's restructuring team, said they have seen interest jump in this opaque market since the decision came down, while prices have surged toward the 40-50% range after earlier trading at much lower levels.

Orrick started seeing demand for refund claims soon after tariffs were implemented in April.

The court case involved two types of emergency tariffs: those aimed at curbing fentanyl imports and a broader range of ‘reciprocal' tariffs. The fentanyl tariffs had been viewed as more likely to get upheld by some analysts and had sold for less. Pasacreta said the two categories have converged since Friday.

Before the decision, buyers were paying 16-17% for fentanyl tariff claims and 26-28% for reciprocal tariff claims.

“The reason that we’re not seeing higher (prices) is because there is still the uncertainty,” said Pasacreta. “This administration has indicated that they’re going to fight the refunds.”

Mark Bissell, CEO of vacuum maker Bissell Inc, says the company has been contacted repeatedly since Friday about possibly selling their refund rights, and the price quoted has indeed surged to 45%.

“Our name pops up, because we’re higher volume in (imported) containers,” he said, “so we’re on a list a lot of people see.”

But he’s still not inclined to sell. He’d rather wait and see if he gets a full refund from the Trump administration. “We spent last year thinking we wouldn’t get anything back, so if we get it back—that’s a bonus,” he said.