Mosaic Q4 adjusted EPS misses analyst expectations

Overview

• Fertilizer producer's Q4 adjusted EPS missed analyst expectations

• Company reported Q4 net loss of $519 mln, impacted by notable items

• Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $505 mln impacted by weak U.S. demand

Outlook

• Mosaic expects 2026 capital expenditures to be approximately $1.5 bln

• Company forecasts 2026 Biosciences net sales to double from 2025

• Mosaic expects Q1 2026 phosphate sales volumes of 1.7 to 1.9 mln tonnes

Result Drivers

• PHOSPHATE CHALLENGES - Lower U.S. phosphate demand and higher raw material costs led to lower sales volumes and increased expenses in Q4

• POTASH GAINS - Higher prices and sales volumes boosted Potash segment's adjusted EBITDA in Q4

• MOSAIC FERTILIZANTES IMPROVEMENT - Operating earnings and adjusted EBITDA increased due to cost reductions and higher sales prices

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "buy" and the breakdown of recommendations is 10 "strong buy" or "buy", 11 "hold" and no "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the agricultural chemicals peer group is "buy"

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Mosaic Co is $33.00, about 14.9% above its February 23 closing price of $28.73

• The stock recently traded at 13 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 9 three months ago

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