Next Heineken CEO must get beer sales flowing again

By Emma Rumney

LONDON, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Heineken's HEIN.AS next CEO, set to replace outgoing boss Dolf van den Brink in June, will face the challenging task of delivering on a strategy set in October promising higher beer sales with fewer resources.

Heineken said on Wednesday it would cut up to 6,000 jobs from its global workforce over the next two years and set lower expectations for profit growth in 2026 than a year earlier, as the Dutch brewer and its peers grapple with weak beer demand.

That adds to the challenge for the world's second-largest brewer behind Anheuser-Busch InBev ABI.BR, which announced van den Brink's resignation in January after six years as CEO amid falling beer sales and discontent among investors.

The maker of Tiger and Amstel alongside its namesake lager is still hunting for a new CEO.

Here are some of the challenges they will face to placate investors and take on rivals, including AB Inbev and Carlsberg CARLb.CO.

GET VOLUMES GROWING

Hopes of a recovery from slow or falling beer sales volumes have been knocked off course by everything from bad weather to political turbulence.

Analysts currently expect volumes will remain well short of the mid-single-digit growth investors hope for until 2027.

And until people have more cash to spend, Heineken's next CEO has few levers to change this.

Competitor Carlsberg has looked to boost volumes via the purchase of soft drinks maker Britvic - a strategy that might help the Danish firm offset slow beer sales and any broader shift away from alcohol. Beer makers can also put more resources behind non-alcoholic beer, a segment which is growing fast.

GIVE INVESTORS A RETURN

Heineken has fallen behind in terms of total investor returns from share price increases and dividends. Some, such as AB InBev, have multi-billion-dollar share buyback programmes.

CUT COSTS

Investors see Heineken lagging behind AB InBev on cost efficiency. Some say they want to see more of the 500 million euros ($583 million) a year Heineken has pledged to save flow through to its bottom line.

The new CEO will have to be careful what they cut. Heineken needs to invest in the right places if it wants to benefit when demand returns.

TOO MANY BREWERIES?

Some investors and analysts say Heineken has too many breweries, especially in mature markets such as Europe where there is less scope for future growth. Some worry attitudes to drinking are shifting and volumes will only decline.

Heineken's new boss will need to shutter sites or, like their predecessor, defend the firm's production footprint.

BRING BACK THE CHEER

While beer sector valuations have all seen sharp declines since 2021 as hopes for future earnings faded, Heineken's has lost the most.

Bringing its valuation back up means reviving optimism around sales and profits, even amid political and economic turbulence, worries future generations are turning away from drinking and new threats like the rise of weight-loss drugs.

($1 = 0.8571 euros)