RXO Q4 revenue misses estimates as full-truckload market tightens

Overview

• Transportation solutions provider's Q4 revenue misses analyst expectations

• Adjusted loss per share for Q4 wider than analyst expectations

• Company finalized $450 mln asset-based lending facility for financial flexibility

Outlook

• RXO expects Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA between $5 mln and $12 mln

• Company anticipates Q1 2026 Brokerage volume to decline by 5% to 10% year-over-year

• RXO forecasts Q1 2026 Brokerage gross margin between 11% and 13%

Result Drivers

• TIGHTENING MARKET - Full-truckload market tightened, impacting buy rates and squeezing Brokerage gross margin, per CEO Drew Wilkerson

• PIPELINE GROWTH - Brokerage late-stage pipeline for new business grew by more than 50% year-over-year

• FREIGHT MANAGEMENT - Managed Transportation awarded more than $200 mln of freight under management in Q4

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "hold" and the breakdown of recommendations is 5 "strong buy" or "buy", 15 "hold" and 2 "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the ground freight & logistics peer group is "buy."

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for RXO Inc is $15.00, about 9.5% below its February 5 closing price of $16.58

• The stock recently traded at 147 times the next 12-month earnings vs. a P/E of 54 three months ago

Press Release: ID:nBw2BsYQza

For questions concerning the data in this report, contact Estimates.Support@lseg.com. For any other questions or feedback, contact reuters.support@thomsonreuters.com.