Green Plains Q4 revenue misses on lower ethanol sales volumes

Overview

• Biorefining company's Q4 revenue fell, missing analyst expectations

• Net income for Q4 rose to $11.9 mln, reversing a loss from last year

• Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 rose to $49.1 mln, aided by 45Z tax credits

Outlook

• Green Plains expects at least $188 mln in 45Z-related adjusted EBITDA for 2026

• Company considering early adoption of ASU 2025-10 in Q1 2026

• Green Plains' risk management strategy supports Q1 margins and cash flow

Result Drivers

• CARBON CAPTURE - Fully operational carbon capture facilities lowered carbon intensity at key sites, contributing to improved performance

• ETHANOL MARGINS - Higher ethanol production margins driven by 45Z production tax credits

• REVENUE DECLINE - Revenue fell due to lower ethanol sales volumes and cessation of third-party marketing agreement

Key Details

Analyst Coverage

• The current average analyst rating on the shares is "hold" and the breakdown of recommendations is 3 "strong buy" or "buy", 5 "hold" and 1 "sell" or "strong sell"

• The average consensus recommendation for the renewable fuels peer group is "buy."

• Wall Street's median 12-month price target for Green Plains Inc is $12.00, about 4.8% below its February 4 closing price of $12.60

Press Release: ID:nBwrFYLra

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