'Two Americas' economy lifts AmEx, drags Visa and Mastercard in 2025

Shares of card companies lagged the broader market this year as the low-income U.S. consumer grappled with elevated prices and sluggish job growth, while the affluent class continued its spending spree

Though consumer spending proved resilient through 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump's trade and immigration policies pressured the labor market and sticky inflation caused less-affluent Americans to pull back on discretionary spending

Card giants Visa V.N and Mastercard MA.N rose 11.9% and 9.7% each through the year, lagging a nearly 17.3% rise in the benchmark S&P 500 index .SPX

However, premium-focused rival American Express AXP.N rose 25.8%, as affluent consumers supported wider U.S. spending amid elevated stock market valuations along with easing tax burdens from Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill Act

Among fintechs, Affirm AFRM.O and LendingClub LC.N rose 24.6% amd 19% each

PayPal PYPL.O, which announced its first ever dividend in October, fell nearly 31% as the company continues to chase profitability over aggressive revenue growth

Consumer lender Capital One gained 36.8% while payments software maker Fiserv sank more than 67.1% this year, amid investor concerns about the company's near-term outlook amid growing pressure on its core payments and merchant business

Analysts expect fintechs and consumer finance companies to benefit from looser regulation and lower rates heading into 2026, even as concerns persist over the widening wealth gap

Economists at Goldman Sachs said in a note in December they expected weak income growth because of tepid job growth and cuts to government assistance programs like Medicaid and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as the Food Stamp program, to weigh on spending by low-income households in 2026

S&P 500 Financials Index .SPSY was up 14.2% in 2025, with large-cap banks set for a second straight year of blockbuster gains