BREAKINGVIEWS-FIFA’s World Cup payday has a big Trump caveat

By Streisand Neto

LONDON, Dec 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - U.S. President Donald Trump will leave a mark on soccer’s greatest spectacle. The 23rd FIFA World Cup takes place in the U.S., Canada and Mexico from June 2026, with American stadiums playing host to 78 of 104 matches. The sport’s governing body expects unusually high income from ticket sales and hospitality packages. It jars with what could be an uncomfortable experience for foreign fans.

FIFA, which runs the quadrennial competition and recycles the money back into the sport, is banking on a blockbuster this time around. The expansion of the tournament to 48 teams, from 32 previously, will help revenue reach $8.9 billion in 2026, according to FIFA’s budget. That’s up roughly 50% from 2022, the year of the Qatar World Cup, which Lionel Messi’s Argentina won on penalties. The governing body expects to score one-third of its 2026 income from hospitality rights and ticket sales, which at $3 billion would be more than triple the equivalent figure from Qatar.

There are reasons to think that President Gianni Infantino will reach his matchday revenue goal. Eleven U.S. host stadiums, including the MetLife arena in New Jersey, have a capacity of over 60,000 seats, whereas in Qatar only two of the eight locations hit that capacity threshold. American arenas are also generally well equipped to offer lucrative corporate hospitality packages. Moreover, it’s hard to understate the benefit of having an enormous and relatively wealthy local audience. Infantino said in late November that FIFA had already sold 2 million tickets in early sales, and that fans from the U.S., Canada and Mexico “drove the most purchases”.

Still, it’s easy to see how an own goal could play out. ESPN reckons there are 7.1 million seats to fill in total, based on published fixture schedules and stadium capacities. That leaves a long way to go to avoid any embarrassing gaps in the crowd. One danger is that a more hostile U.S. border policy deters soccer lovers from scooping up tickets or attending. Trump introduced another crunching challenge in June by imposing a travel ban covering 12 countries, including two that have qualified for the World Cup: Iran and Haiti. Reuters reported at the time that the White House could add another 36 countries to that list. It hasn’t happened, but the uncertainty hardly helps. Fans may wonder how organisers would handle situations where ticket holders aren’t allowed to enter the United States. According to a person familiar with the matter, however, FIFA is working with U.S. authorities to facilitate visas for people to come.

Even if the World Cup kicks off with all tickets and hospitality packages sold, there is a risk of a post-tournament fan backlash. An analysis by transportation engineer and blogger Hayden Clarkin found patchy rail and bus coverage in major U.S. World Cup host cities. Trump has also threatened to move games away from cities he deems unsafe, raising the risk of politically motivated last-minute schedule changes for visitors. Given Infantino’s relatively close relationship with the president, the soccer boss may fancy his chances of minimising any chaos. The flip side is that FIFA will end up owning any problems that Trump causes at the World Cup.

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This is a Reuters Breakingviews prediction for 2026.