Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speech Preview: Markets await clues on rate cuts

• Fed Chair Powell will speak on the US economic outlook on Tuesday.
• Markets see a strong probability of two more Fed rate cuts in 2025.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce 2025 Economic Outlook Luncheon on Tuesday at 16:35 GMT.

Following the September policy meeting, the Fed decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis-points (bps) to the range of 4%-4.25%, as widely anticipated. The revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), also known as the dot-plot, showed that projections imply additional 50 bps of rate cuts in 2025, 25 bps in 2026 and 25 bps in 2027.

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In the post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Powell clarified that he doesn't feel the need to move quickly on rates and called the decision to lower the rates a "risk management cut." While he noted that it's time to acknowledge that risks to the employment mandate have grown, he also added that they still expect tariff-driven price increases to continue this year and next.

The CME FedWatch Tool currently shows that markets are pricing in about a 75% probability of the Fed opting for two more 25 bps rate cuts this year. This market positioning suggests that the US Dollar (USD) has room on the downside in case Powell leaves the door open to a total of 50 bps reduction in rates, citing worsening conditions in the labor market.

On the other hand, the USD could stay resilient against its major rivals if Powell reiterates upside risks to the inflation outlook because of the uncertainty surrounding the impact of tariffs on prices, and adopts an optimistic tone about economic prospects. In this scenario, US Treasury bond yields could edge higher and Wall Street's main indexes could come under bearish pressure.