Merchandise trade volume growth stronger than expected in Q1 2025, says WTO report

By Olivia Le Poidevin

GENEVA, July 15 (Reuters) - The volume of world merchandise trade grew more than forecast in the first quarter of 2025 from the previous three months, but growth is expected to slow, a new World Trade Organization report said on Tuesday.

The volume of world merchandise trade rose by 3.6% in the first quarter of 2025 from the previous quarter and 5.3% year-on-year, due to a surge of imports in North America ahead of expected higher tariffs in the United States, the WTO report showed.

"Merchandise trade volume growth in the first quarter was stronger than the WTO’s most recent forecast, but WTO economists expect the pace of expansion to slow later in the year as fully stocked inventories and higher tariffs weigh on import demand," the report said.

In April the WTO's adjusted forecast said that trade in goods would fall by 0.2% this year, saying further U.S. tariffs and spillover effects could lead to the heaviest slump since the height of the COVID pandemic.

On Tuesday, it upwardly revised that estimate, with growth now expected to be flat at 0.1%.

It said that widely anticipated new tariffs announced by the U.S. in April had allowed importers to make purchases earlier, to avoid paying higher duties later on, and that a number of trade agreements and measures also positively influenced predicted growth.

The strongest quarter-on-quarter growth was recorded in North America at 13.4%, followed by Africa at 5.1%, South and Central America and the Caribbean at 3.6%, the Middle East at 3.0%, Europe at 1.3%, and Asia at 1.1%.

The WTO report also recorded year-on-year growth in the U.S- dollar value of world merchandise trade in the broad product category in the first quarter. Office and telecom equipment grew by 16%, year on year, alongside chemicals at 12% and clothing at 7%. Automotive products fell in value by 4%, alongside fuels and mining products, and iron and steel by 3%.