Major exporters expect drop in trade volume after US tariff announcements: Allianz Trade

May 21 - (The Insurer) - Nearly 60% of exporters in major economies expect a negative impact from the U.S. government's "Liberation Day" tariff announcements, the latest Allianz Trade Global Survey has shown.

The survey, which polled 4,500 companies across nine countries, found that 45% of exporters expect a decline in trade volume after the tariff announcements. Those sectors reliant on imported semi-finished goods will be hit hardest, with firms with highly concentrated supply chains and export markets also likely to be affected.

“In sharp contrast to the optimism seen before the tariff wave, the survey confirms what we are observing across markets: uncertainty and fragmentation becoming structural,” said Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO at Allianz Trade.

The share of firms expecting a positive export growth rate dropped from 80% to 40%, while 42% of companies expect export turnover to fall by between 2% and 10%. The survey estimates global export losses will total $305 billion in 2025.

Coqui said that firms are adapting to the announcements by diversifying partners and reconfiguring logistics.

The tariffs have particularly affected exporters in China and Singapore, where 82% and 55% of respondents respectively expect their global trade to be negatively impacted.

Despite a subsequent trade agreement between the U.S. and China, the survey shows expectations of a continued reduction in trade between the two countries. U.S. businesses’ intention to export to China halved to 10%, while Chinese firms' expectations to export to North America fell from 15% to 3%.

“Against this backdrop, friendshoring may continue to gain traction. Europe and Latin America have emerged as attractive alternatives for Chinese firms, and European firms are increasingly interested in exporting to China and Asia,” said Françoise Huang, senior economist for Asia Pacific and trade at Allianz Trade.