Allstate surpasses aggregate reinsurance retention with $1.04 billion in March cat losses

By Michael Loney

April 17 - (The Insurer) - Allstate Corporation has estimated catastrophe losses for the month of March of $1.04 billion, with the U.S. personal lines insurer surpassing the retention level for its annual reinsurance cover and expecting recoveries of $123 million for the month.

The catastrophe losses for March, which were $818 million after-tax, include 11 events with approximately 80% of the losses related to four geographically widespread wind and hail events.

Illinois-based Allstate said that in March it surpassed the retention level of the annual aggregate reinsurance cover for the annual risk period ending March 31, 2025, “with expected recoveries of approximately $123 million, reducing March catastrophe losses.”

Its total catastrophe losses for the first quarter of 2025 were $2.20 billion, or $1.74 billion, after-tax.

This included $92 million in losses in February and $1.08 billion in January, $1.07 billion of which were related to the California wildfires.

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods equity analyst Meyer Shields said in a research note that he had previously modeled $1.69 billion of Q1 cat losses implying $524 million of losses in March.

Allstate also reported monthly policy in force figures that including continued deceleration in auto year-over-year PIF decreases. Shields said that this reinforces his confidence in Allstate’s ability to return to positive PIF growth in 2025.

Shields lowered his 2025 estimated earnings per share to $16.00 from $17.50 and maintained his ‘outperform’ rating on Allstate.

New York-listed Allstate’s share price was down 0.3% as of 10.40 a.m ET on Thursday following the announcement, compared to Wednesday’s closing price of $194.24.