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Brazil economists scale back monetary easing outlook for this year

ReutersMar 23, 2026 12:30 PM

- Brazilian economists trimmed expectations for monetary easing this year after policymakers kicked off an interest rate-cutting cycle last week with a 25-basis-point reduction to 14.75%, a weekly central bank survey showed on Monday.

  • Economists now expect the benchmark rate to end the year at 12.50%, up from a previous median forecast of 12.25%.

  • The revision reflects a view that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at its final policy meeting of the year in December, instead of lowering them by 25 basis points as previously expected.

  • Forecasts for the next meeting in late April remain for a 50-basis-point cut.

  • For the following meeting in June, however, the expected rate cut has been reduced to 50 basis points from 75 basis points previously.

  • Brazil's central bank last week held off on explicit guidance for next steps as an oil shock linked to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran heightened global inflation concerns.

  • Economists raised their inflation forecast for this year to 4.17% from 4.10%, above the official 3% target.

  • Inflation projections were left unchanged at 3.8% for 2027 but edged up to 3.52% for 2028, from 3.5%.

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