ECB sees 4.8% inflation in severe scenario for energy crisis

FRANKFURT, March 19 (Reuters) - Inflation in the euro zone might surge to 4.8% next year if oil and gas prices continued to rise and the European Central Bank failed to raise interest rates, new ECB scenarios showed on Thursday.

In the ECB's severe scenario, oil would rise to almost $150 per barrel and gas prices to 110 euros per megawatt/hour in the second quarter of this year, pushing headline inflation to 4.4% this year, 4.8% next year and 2.8% in 2028.

"The significant increases in inflation, especially under the severe scenario, would likely be partly offset by tighter monetary policy or fiscal support measures which could lower consumer energy prices," the ECB said.