When are the German/ Eurozone flash HCOB PMIs and how could they affect EUR/USD?
German/ Eurozone flash PMIs Overview
The preliminary German and Eurozone HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for February is due for release today at 08:30 and 09:00 GMT, respectively.
Amongst the Euro area economies, the German and the composite Eurozone PMI reports hold more relevance, in terms of their impact on the European currency and the related markets as well.
The flash Composite PMI for Germany is expected to come in marginally higher at 52.2 from 52.1 in January. The manufacturing sector output is anticipated to have contracted again, but at a moderate pace. Manufacturing PMI is seen arriving at 49.6, higher than the previous reading of 49.1. A figure below 50.0 is seen as a contraction in the business activity. The Services PMI is estimated to come in lower at 52.2 from 52.4 in January.
The forecast for the Eurozone flash Composite PMI also shows that the overall private sector output increased at a faster pace due to an improvement in both manufacturing and the services sector activity. The Composite PMI is estimated at 51.5, higher than 51.3 in January. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to return to the 50.0 threshold that separates expansion from contraction. The Services PMI is seen higher at 52.0 from the prior release of 51.6.
How could German/ Eurozone flash PMIs affect EUR/USD?
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EUR/USD trades 0.14% lower to near 1.1755 at the press time. The major currency pair posts a fresh swing low at 1.1742 on Thursday, suggesting the onset of a bearish trend. Also, the pair holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1817, indicating a bearish near-term trend. The 20-day EMA is rolling over and acts as near-term resistance.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44, below the midline and slipping, signals weakening momentum.
Below the declining 20-day EMA, rebounds would remain capped, and risk would remain skewed to the downside. A daily close below Thursday's low of 1.1742 would open the door for further downside toward the January 22 low of 1.1670.
On the contrary, a recovery move back above the average could ease bearish pressure and open room for recovery toward the February 11 high of 1.1927.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
HCOB Composite PMI
The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in Germany for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the German private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.
Next release: Fri Feb 20, 2026 08:30 (Prel)
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 52.2
Previous: 52.1
Source: S&P Global
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