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CEE MARKETS-Forint hits 2-year high vs euro with no clarity on rate cut timing

ReutersJan 27, 2026 4:16 PM

- The forint climbed to a 2-year high against the euro on Tuesday after Hungary's central bank left interest rates unchanged, while giving no clues on when it might again ease policy after a more than year-long pause.

The central bank left its base rate steady at the European Union's joint-highest level of 6.5%, as widely expected, although markets were tuned to its communication after the decision after the bank adopted a more dovish tone last month.

Governor Mihaly Varga said January's inflation figures, to be released next month, would be key in shaping policymakers' view of underlying price pressures, and reiterated the bank should stay cautious.

The forint EURHUF= took the lack of new clarity positively, firming more than half a percent on the day to trade at 379.65 per euro at 1547 GMT.

'CAUTIOUS TONE'

"(The central bank) adopted a noticeably more cautious tone again," Erste Group Bank said, adding the probability of a February rate cut has diminished.

Other analysts said a rate cut still remained possible, and Goldman Sachs said a base case of a cut in the first quarter remained intact, conditional on favourable inflation readings, adding forint appreciation was a dovish cue for the rate outlook.

The forint has been fuelled by tight central bank policy since Hungary's rate setters last cut in late-2024. Analysts in a Reuters poll last week saw room for 75 basis points worth of rate easing by the end of 2026.

Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= eased a touch to 24.252 to the euro but has been hovering off its own more than two-year high of 24.100 hit in December.

The Czech National Bank meets on rates next week and could discuss slight monetary easing due to external factors that may lead large central banks to cut rates, Vice-Governor Jan Frait said in a Reuters interview published on Tuesday.

In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= gained 0.2% and Romania's leu EURRON= was up a touch, helped by U.S. dollar weakness. Stock markets were up, led by a 1.5% rise in Prague .PX.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1647 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.2520

24.2280

-0.10%

-0.35%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

379.6500

381.2000

+0.41%

+1.24%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.1985

4.2055

+0.17%

+0.41%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0955

5.0970

+0.03%

-0.03%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.3000

117.4000

+0.09%

+0.00%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Prague

.PX

2783.17

2741.0300

+1.54%

+3.63%

Budapest

.BUX

128069.36

126663.78

+1.11%

+15.34%

Warsaw

.WIG20

3363.73

3356.01

+0.23%

+5.64%

Bucharest

.BETI

27775.04

27457.84

+1.16%

+13.65%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.3870

0.0000

+128bps

+1bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.7800

-0.0050

+132bps

+1bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.3940

-0.0110

+153bps

-1bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

3.5760

-0.0940

+147bps

-8bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.4240

-0.0660

+196bps

-5bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.1120

-0.0190

+225bps

-2bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.35

3.27

3.23

3.48

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

3.48

3.37

3.35

3.92

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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