tradingkey.logo

CEE MARKETS-Forint backs off high as markets await Hungary rate cues

ReutersJan 27, 2026 10:56 AM

- The Hungarian forint eased on Tuesday after hitting a multi-week high in the previous session, ahead of the country's central bank policy announcement that is expected to keep the base rate unchanged.

The forint EURHUF= was 0.2% lower at 382.00 versus the euro, backtracking from a six-week high of 381.05 hit on Monday.

"This is a correction, the forint just firmed a bit too much yesterday," an FX trader in Budapest said.

A Reuters poll showed that the National Bank of Hungary was all but certain to leave its base rate steady at 6.5% on Tuesday, the European Union's joint-highest level, as strong services pricing at the end of last year tempers the case for easing.

However, analysts also now see room for 75 basis points worth of rate easing by the end of 2026, 25 bps more than expected last month.

Earlier, central bank Governor Mihaly Varga had opened the door to a possible rate cut after the bank's meeting in December.

"A renewed (noticeable) re-acceleration of core HICP in the December data could make the central bank turn cautious (more hawkish) again," Commerzbank wrote in a note.

"A more cautious, restrictive tone from Varga will be supportive of forint outperformance, while maintaining last month’s dovish messaging will open up the currency to underperformance."

The bank is scheduled to announce its rate decision at 1300 GMT. A statement and a press conference will follow at 1400 GMT.

Elsewhere, the Polish zloty EURPLN= was a touch up, trading at 4.2045 per euro.

The zloty's rate will be mainly influenced by the dollar, PKO Bank wrote in a note.

Stocks in the region were mixed, with Budapest's equities .BUX up 1% and Prague's blue chip .PX index 0.4% higher. Warsaw's stocks .WIG20 rose 0.2%.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1106 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

382.0000

381.2000

-0.21%

+0.62%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2045

4.2055

+0.02%

+0.26%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0965

5.0970

+0.01%

-0.05%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.3000

117.4000

+0.09%

+0.00%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2026

Prague

.PX

2753.20

2741.0300

+0.44%

+2.52%

Budapest

.BUX

127941.08

126663.78

+1.01%

+15.23%

Warsaw

.WIG20

3363.60

3356.01

+0.23%

+5.64%

Bucharest

.BETI

27730.22

27457.84

+0.99%

+13.47%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.3660

-0.0020

+125bps

+0bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.8380

0.0020

+136bps

-1bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.4490

-0.0010

+156bps

-2bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

3.6030

-0.0670

+149bps

-7bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.4560

-0.0340

+197bps

-4bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.1200

-0.0110

+224bps

-3bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRAPRIBOR=

3.40

3.32

3.29

3.48

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR=

3.50

3.37

3.36

3.92

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

Related Articles

Tradingkey
KeyAI