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CANADA FX DEBT-Canadian dollar ekes out weekly gain despite trade talks breakdown

ReutersOct 24, 2025 9:01 PM
  • Canadian dollar weakens 0.1% against greenback
  • Loonie gains 0.1% for the week
  • US cuts off trade talks with Canada
  • Canadian bonds ease across the curve

By Fergal Smith

- The Canadian dollar gave back some of its weekly gain against the U.S. dollar on Friday as trade negotiations between Canada and the United States broke down and markets looked ahead to an expected Bank of Canada interest rate cut next week.

The loonie CAD= was trading 0.1% lower at 1.40 per U.S. dollar, or 71.43 U.S. cents, after moving in a range of 1.3975 to 1.4039. For the week, the currency was up 0.1%, helped by hotter-than-expected domestic inflation data.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said that Canada stands ready to resume trade talks with the United States that President Donald Trump halted over an anti-tariff advertisement issued by Ontario's provincial government.

"The trade headline reinforces the pessimism around CAD and its fundamental backdrop is still pretty weak, so I think people are still happy to buy USD-CAD on dips until the growth side in Canada looks better," said Erik Nelson, a macro strategist at Wells Fargo Securities in London.

Speculators have raised bearish bets on the Canadian dollar to the highest level since April, according to the latest data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which was produced before the federal government shutdown. 1090741NNET

"I don't think inflation alone is going to help the loonie," Nelson said. "We still think the Bank of Canada is going to cut next week."

The Bank of Canada will reduce its target for the overnight interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% on October 29 to support a weak economy, according to a Reuters poll.

The U.S. dollar .DXY edged lower against a basket of major currencies after U.S. inflation data kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut rates again next week.

Canadian bond yields moved lower across the curve, with the 10-year CA10YT=RR down 1.8 basis points at 3.085%.

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