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CEE MARKETS-FX steadies ahead of US data as trade war risks persist

ReutersOct 24, 2025 9:45 AM

- Central and Eastern European currencies were largely unchanged on Friday, with investors looking out for core market data later in the day and weighing global geopolitical developments on tariffs.

The U.S. dollar was steady, but still on course for a modest weekly gain against major rivals, as investors braced for delayed inflation data that is unlikely to deter the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates next week.

Trade war worries were back on the agenda after U.S. President Donald Trump said all trade talks with Canada were terminated following what he called a fraudulent advertisement by the province of Ontario in which late President Ronald Reagan spoke negatively about tariffs.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= slipped 0.2% to 4.2365 per euro by 0909 GMT, giving back gains from the previous session, but remaining near its strongest level since early April hit on Wednesday at 4.2230.

Wednesday's 6-1/2-month high came on the back of firm data from the Polish economy and positive global sentiment as well as relatively high interest rates and good performance of the Warsaw bourse, according to chief currency analyst at DM BOS brokerage Marek Rogalski.

He said these factors suggested the zloty could trade below 4.23 to the euro for longer.

However, there were short-term external risks, such as "uncertainty regarding next week's talks between Trump and Xi Jinping, and the situation in Venezuela, following yesterday's brief statement by the US president, which may indicate a possible military intervention in the country," he said.

Analysts at state-run development bank BGK forecast the zloty would continue in the 4.23-4.25 per euro range.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was flat at 24.34 per euro, off from a two-year high of 24.21 hit in early October.

A Prague trader said the crown still had scope to firm past the 24.30 level and approach 24.21 again, but would likely not gain past that.

Data on Thursday showed Czech consumer confidence jumping to more than 5-year high in October. Analysts say subdued price expectations in the data bode well for the inflation outlook.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was also unchanged at 390.10 per euro, as local markets closed for a national holiday. It remained in a range near its 17-month high of 387.60 also reached in early October.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1109 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.3400

24.3330

-0.03%

+3.57%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

390.1000

390.2000

+0.03%

+5.47%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2365

4.2295

-0.17%

+0.95%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0832

5.0850

+0.04%

-2.10%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.1300

117.2300

+0.09%

-0.15%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2344.50

2340.8300

+0.16%

+33.20%

Budapest

.BUX

104182.83

103424.15

+0.73%

+31.33%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2986.18

2912.05

+2.55%

+36.23%

Bucharest

.BETI

22411.75

21993.37

+1.90%

+34.04%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.5450

-0.0280

+157bps

-7bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.8920

0.0330

+167bps

-1bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.3470

0.0210

+173bps

-2bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.1650

0.0890

+219bps

+5bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.7860

0.0270

+256bps

-2bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.4150

0.0190

+280bps

-2bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.54

3.50

3.51

3.52

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.13

3.85

3.74

4.49

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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Spot FX rates
Eastern Europe spot FX EEFX= Middle East spot FX MEFX=
Asia spot FX ASIAFX= Latin America spot FX LATAMFX=

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World central bank news CEN Economic Data Guide ECONGUIDE
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