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CEE MARKETS-FX a touch stronger as markets eye US-China trade war

ReutersOct 13, 2025 9:45 AM

- Central European currencies edged up on Monday, stabilising after suffering losses at the end of last week when U.S.-China trade tensions pressured emerging currencies.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= edged up 0.04% to trade at 392.2 euro after weakening on Friday.

On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods imports into the United States and announced new export controls on critical software by November 1 in response to China's curbs on rare-earth elements and equipment.

Beijing defended its measures on Sunday as justified but stopped short of imposing additional levies on U.S. goods.

The forint was also pressured on Friday by market jitters ahead of S&P publication of Hungary's credit ratings review, an FX trader in Budapest said.

Late on Friday the agency said that it kept Hungary's BBB- rating with a negative outlook unchanged.

"Nobody really thought that S&P would downgrade Hungary, but some investors did get a bit uncertain," the trader said. "But today seems really quiet with the U.S. holiday."

Elsewhere, the Polish zloty EURPLN= was a touch stronger as it added 0.12% to trade at 4.2585 per euro, stabilising after losses suffered last week.

The currency weakened after a central bank interest rate cut on Wednesday. Central bank chief Adam Glapinski said on Thursday that the Monetary Policy Council still saw some room to cut, but it remains uncertain whether such a move would happen in November.

On Monday, central banker Ludwik Kotecki said that the monetary policy council was unlikely to cut interest rates deeper this year.

"In the case of the EUR/PLN, we assume a continuation of the medium-term sideways trend," PKO Bank wrote in a note.

"However, the global environment, as well as the ongoing decline in the PLN's attractiveness for carry trade strategies, could result in this pair's volatility shifting toward the 4.26-4.27 range," they said.

Elsewhere, the Czech crown EURCZK= edged up 0.09% to 24.33 to the euro, recouping losses after falling from a 25-month high of 24.21 last week.

The Romanian leu EURRON= was also a touch stronger, inching further away from weak levels last seen in May. It traded at 5.0899 to the euro as data showed that headline inflation inched up less than expected to 9.88% in September.

Romania's inflation is the highest in the European Union although the central bank has not sought to react by raising interest rates. Instead, it has kept policy on hold since cutting twice last year.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1113 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.3300

24.3510

+0.09%

+3.61%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

392.2000

392.3500

+0.04%

+4.90%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2585

4.2635

+0.12%

+0.43%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0899

5.0935

+0.07%

-2.23%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0800

117.1700

+0.08%

-0.11%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2371.48

2365.3600

+0.26%

+34.73%

Budapest

.BUX

102463.59

101990.76

+0.46%

+29.17%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2874.51

2873.04

+0.05%

+31.14%

Bucharest

.BETI

21593.83

21629.27

-0.16%

+29.14%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4810

-0.0100

+153bps

+0bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.9200

-0.0220

+169bps

-2bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.3860

-0.0220

+175bps

-3bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.1690

-0.0280

+222bps

-2bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.8010

-0.0550

+258bps

-5bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.4370

-0.0250

+280bps

-3bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.57

3.56

3.55

3.53

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.17

3.88

3.75

4.54

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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