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BOFA INSTITUTE DATA POINTS TO CONTINUED LABOR MARKET SLOWING
With investors grappling with a lack of economic data due to the ongoing government shutdown, Bank of America Institute said in a note on Monday that its internal data suggests a continued slowdown in the pace of job growth in September.
BofA said it uses internal data to estimate a payroll series by monitoring the change in the number of customer accounts receiving paychecks. While the firm notes the data can be "fairly noisy," in part due to seasonal variation, looking at a three-month average indicates some further weakening in payrolls growth occurred last month. The data was also softer than the 32,000 reported in last week's ADP National Employment Report.
In addition, BofA data also pointed to "some upward momentum" in employment. By using unemployment payments in Bank of America customer accounts as a gauge for continuing unemployment claims, the firm determined the year-over-year rise was around 10%, compared with a 5% rise in continuing claims in August data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Lastly, wage growth showed a large divergence between that of middle- and higher-income households versus those of lower-income. BofA data showed wage and salary payments increased by 4% year-over-year for higher-income, 2.4% for the middle and 1.4% for the lower.
(Chuck Mikolajczak)
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