FOREX-Dollar firms as traders rethink rate cut bets ahead of Powell speech

By Ankur Banerjee

SINGAPORE, Aug 22 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar firmed on Friday and was poised for a strong weekly performance as investors reassessed rate cut wagers ahead of an eagerly anticipated speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that could shape the near-term monetary policy path.

A soft July jobs report coupled with big downward revisions to hiring in May and June bolstered hopes of an imminent reduction in borrowing costs, with traders at one point even pricing in a jumbo rate cut for the next meeting in September.

But since then cautious comments from other policymakers and economic data flashing inflationary risks have tempered those expectations. Traders are now pricing in a 75% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, down from 92% a week earlier, CME FedWatch tool showed.

Fed officials appeared lukewarm on Thursday to the idea of a rate cut next month, setting the stage for Powell's speech at the annual Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming, which kicked off on Thursday.

"Powell is unlikely to pre-commit to a September cut," said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo. "The Fed has a dual mandate, but right now inflation outweighs labour as the bigger risk."

"With another inflation and payrolls print still due before the September meeting, Powell has every reason to stay patient and keep optionality open," Chanana said.

That might leave the dollar vulnerable after a steady but unspectacular rise in the past week.

The euro EUR=EBS hit its lowest level since August 6 and was last at $1.1583.

The single currency, which has benefited in 2025 from the dollar's decline, is down 0.8% for the week. For the year, it is still up 12%.

Sterling GBP=D3 was steady at $1.3402, down 1% for the week.

The dollar index =USD, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, was at 98.75, on course for a 0.9% rise in the week, snapping its two-week losing streak.

Market pricing for a September rate cut sets a high bar for Powell to 'out-dove' the market, according to Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"We expect a larger lift in the dollar if Powell challenges current high market pricing of a 25 bps September cut. Put another way, the dollar faces asymmetric risks with greater upside potential than downside," Capurso said.

The yen JPY=EBS eased to 148.63 per dollar, poised for a 1% decline for the week. Data showed core inflation in Japan slowed for a second straight month in July but stayed above the central bank's 2% target, keeping alive expectations for a rate hike in the coming months.

"We expect the BOJ to raise its policy rate in October," said Min Joo Kang, senior economist at ING. "Core inflation is likely to remain above 3% for an extended period... This will support the Bank of Japan’s policy of normalisation."

The Australian dollar AUD=D3 was little changed at $0.6425, set for a 1.2% drop for the week, while the New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 eased a tad to $0.58135, on course for a 1.9% weekly decline, its biggest drop in more than four months.