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CEE MARKETS-Currencies flat as Ukraine, inflation data in focus

ReutersAug 12, 2025 9:08 AM

By Alan Charlish

- Central European currencies hovered around the previous session's closing levels on Tuesday, as investors weighed the chance of a peace deal in Ukraine and digested inflation data from Romania, released earlier.

European leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy plan to speak with United States President Donald Trump on Wednesday, ahead of his meeting with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Alaska, amid fears Washington may dictate unfavourable peace terms to Ukraine.

Central European assets were boosted by news of the Trump-Putin meeting last week, but have generally softened since Monday.

The Polish zloty EURPLN was 0.04% weaker against the euro at 4.2585 at 0759 GMT, having shed around 0.3% on Monday. The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was 0.03% weaker at 395.75.

"I think we last week ended with the big hopes for this meeting of Putin and Trump," said a Warsaw-based FX trader.

"Now there is a little bit of profit-taking and maybe the optimism is fading as people...just start thinking about it, what might be the outcome, and are less optimistic than the way they were on Friday."

Investors looking for clues on the path ahead for Federal Reserve interest rate policy were also waiting for a July U.S. inflation reading.

"Economists expect a slight increase in the main inflation measure and core inflation, and in our opinion, such a result should not cause increased volatility in the FX market," PKO BP said in a note.

The Romanian leu EURRON= was 0.04% weaker at 5.067.

The country's annual inflation rose sharply in July, above market expectations, to its highest level since 2023, as electricity prices surged more than expected after the government's price cap expired.

"Today's inflation figure is all the more interesting given the expected increase from August due to the government's consolidation package, which raises some taxes, including VAT," ING said in a note.

"Therefore, we expect inflation to continue to rise in the coming months, peaking in September and October."

Romania's central bank held its benchmark interest rate ROINTR=ECI at 6.50% as expected on Friday, saying annual inflation will "surge markedly" in the third quarter due to increases in VAT, excise duties and electricity prices.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was 0.03% firmer at 24.459.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 0959 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.4590

24.4660

+0.03%

+3.07%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

395.7500

395.6500

-0.03%

+3.96%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2585

4.2570

-0.04%

+0.43%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0670

5.0648

-0.04%

-1.79%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0500

117.1500

+0.09%

-0.09%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2293.83

2287.3500

+0.28%

+30.32%

Budapest

.BUX

104293.81

104190.64

+0.10%

+31.47%

Warsaw

.WIG20

3011.92

2994.43

+0.58%

+37.40%

Bucharest

.BETI

20899.44

20925.28

-0.12%

+24.99%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.5070

-0.0010

+155bps

+1bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.8580

-0.0060

+157bps

+0bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.3120

-0.0060

+161bps

-1bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.2410

-0.0910

+228bps

-8bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.8070

0.0050

+252bps

+1bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.3970

-0.0160

+270bps

-2bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.56

3.54

3.50

3.51

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.40

4.06

3.76

4.90

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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