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CEE MARKETS-Stocks higher, FX stable after US-EU trade deal

ReutersJul 28, 2025 7:56 AM

- Central European stocks firmed while currencies were little moved on Monday after a trade agreement announced on Sunday between the United States and the European Union improved investors' mood.

The U.S. struck a framework trade agreement with the European Union, imposing a 15% import tariff on most EU goods, half the threatened rate, a week after agreeing to a similar trade deal with Japan.

Countries are scrambling to finalise trade deals ahead of an August 1 deadline set by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Stocks in central Europe firmed, with Warsaw's stocks .WIG20 adding 0.3%. Budapest's blue chip index .BUX firmed 0.4% while Prague's equities .PX were 0.5% higher. Bucharest's stocks .BETI were up 0.1%.

Currencies traded sideways, with the Hungarian forint and the Czech crown hovering near recently hit highs after gains at the end of last week when they were lifted by expectations of a US-EU trade deal.

"Markets continue to be dominated by U.S. trade headlines, which, after the weekend, indicate a risk-on mood," ING wrote in a note.

"We already saw this on Friday in Hungarian forint and Czech crown trading ... Both currencies are also supported by hawkish repricing," they said.

The Hungarian EURHUF= forint stood near a 10-month high as it was up 0.06% on the day and trading at 396.15 versus the euro.

"The next significant support level (is seen) at 395, while the 398 level now represents short-term resistance," brokerage Equilor wrote.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was flat, trading at 24.56 versus the euro, near its strongest levels since the start of 2024, a high that the currency hit last week.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= slid 0.04% and was trading at 4.25 to the euro, within its recent range.

"EUR/PLN has been trading within a narrow range in recent weeks, and at this point we don't see any factors that could contribute to a stronger move in EUR/PLN, unless the Fed surprises significantly at its meeting this week," Bank Millennium wrote.

The Romanian leu EURRON= was a touch weaker, down 0.05% versus the euro and trading at 5.0702.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 0922 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.5600

24.5610

+0.00%

+2.64%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

396.1500

396.4000

+0.06%

+3.86%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2500

4.2485

-0.04%

+0.63%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0702

5.0678

-0.05%

-1.85%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.1000

117.1500

+0.04%

-0.13%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2221.47

2209.6500

+0.53%

+26.21%

Budapest

.BUX

101732.02

101380.77

+0.35%

+28.24%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2971.20

2962.94

+0.28%

+35.55%

Bucharest

.BETI

19923.21

19908.18

+0.08%

+19.15%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.5320

-0.0010

+162bps

+2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.8710

0.0040

+160bps

+3bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.3140

-0.0040

+162bps

+2bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.2840

-0.0300

+237bps

-1bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.8850

-0.0440

+261bps

-2bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.4670

-0.0330

+277bps

-1bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.50

3.46

3.44

3.50

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.48

4.11

3.83

4.96

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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