tradingkey.logo

CEE MARKETS-Currencies gain slightly, US tariffs and ECB in focus

ReutersJul 24, 2025 9:07 AM

- Central European currencies were a touch stronger on Thursday, with the Czech crown at its highest level in 13 months, ahead of an interest rate decision by the European Central Bank and the possibility of a trade agreement between the European Union and the United States.

On Wednesday, EU diplomats said the European Union was heading towards a trade deal with Washington that would result in a broad 15% tariff on EU goods imported into the U.S., avoiding a harsher 30% levy slated to be implemented from August 1.

However, the White House later stated that discussion about any possible trade deals with the United States should be considered "speculation", unless they are announced by President Donald Trump.

The market is currently awaiting the ECB's interest rate decision – the consensus assumes they will remain unchanged, and the ECB president's narrative will be key.

"Speculation about a possible trade agreement between the EU and the U.S. benefits the crown ... Today's ECB meeting should not bring any big surprises and the differential between the Czech and euro market rates will not move much," Czech bank CSOB said.

"It will be difficult for the crown to move further towards significantly stronger levels without certainty about the form of trade relations between the EU and the U.S."

The Czech crown EURCZK= traded at 24.57 per euro at 0816 GMT, near the strongest level in 13 months. The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was a touch up at 398.30.

"During yesterday’s trading, the euro-forint exchange rate approached the 398 support level, which remains a very important and strong threshold," brokerage Equilor said in a report.

"If this level were to break, it could open further room for the forint to strengthen. On the upside, the key resistance zone is still observed in the 400-401 range."

The Polish zloty EURPLN= traded within its recent range at 4.2505 to the euro. Investors are waiting for the ECB's decision and they mostly ignored a Polish government reshuffle announced on Wednesday.

"The zloty is consistently expanding its narrowed sideways trend, hovering around the 4.25 level. Anticipation for today's decision by the European Central Bank is dominating," ING analysts wrote in a note.

"In our opinion, the scenario for EUR/PLN prices in the coming days will remain a concentration around the aforementioned 4.25 level, with low volatility."

The Romanian leu EURRON= was stable at 5.07 per euro after S&P Global affirmed Romania's sovereign credit ratings at "BBB-/A-3", the last rung of investment grade.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1016 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.5700

24.5900

+0.08%

+2.60%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

398.3000

398.5000

+0.05%

+3.30%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2505

4.2530

+0.06%

+0.62%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0700

5.0698

-0.00%

-1.84%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0800

117.1800

+0.09%

-0.11%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2198.36

2192.6500

+0.26%

+24.89%

Budapest

.BUX

101003.48

100868.31

+0.13%

+27.33%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2947.02

2946.62

+0.01%

+34.44%

Bucharest

.BETI

19774.36

19734.44

+0.20%

+18.26%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.5270

0.0180

+167bps

-4bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.8200

0.0120

+159bps

-7bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.2720

0.0160

+160bps

-6bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.3720

-0.0060

+252bps

-6bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.8910

0.0190

+266bps

-6bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.4680

0.0190

+279bps

-6bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.51

3.48

3.47

3.49

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.48

4.07

3.76

4.96

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

Related Articles

Tradingkey
KeyAI