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CEE MARKETS-Currencies drift as investors eye US tariffs

ReutersJul 11, 2025 9:29 AM

- Central European currencies held largely steady on Friday as investors as they assessed more U.S. trade tariffs and awaited developments regarding potential levies on the European Union.

The U.S. dollar rose on Friday, fuelled by upheavals on the global trade landscape, as U.S. President Donald Trump announced more import tariffs, ranging from 35% on neighbouring Canada to plans for blanket levies of 15% or 20% on most trading partners.

Trump said on Thursday the EU could receive a letter on tariff rates by Friday, throwing into question the progress of trade talks between Washington and the bloc.

"Friday is another day without significant macro releases, so investors will focus on potential new reports on U.S. tariffs," PKO BP analysts wrote in a note.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= was flat against the euro at 4.2550 by 0841 GMT, trading near its lowest levels this week.

In Romania, data on Friday showed that annual inflation rose slightly above market expectations in June. Analysts say pending tax hikes will drive it considerably higher by year-end, likely delaying interest rate cuts until next year.

The Romanian leu EURRON= was also flat against the euro at 5.0799.

"We perceive that 5.05-5.10 is the new central bank comfort range for the EUR/RON, as further RON weakness could add undesired fuel to the inflationary fire," Erste Group analysts wrote in a note.

"FX vulnerability remains high due to large current account deficit and high-risk premia. Hence, higher cost of carry might be required to fence the RON," they added.

The Czech crown EURCZK= edged 0.1% lower to 24.6550, off a more than one-year high of 24.5990 hit early this week.

"The koruna's recent gains against the single European currency were driven mainly by the Czech National Bank's hawkish rhetoric, which led to a visible widening of the differential between the koruna and the euro's market interest rates," Komercni Banka analysts wrote in a note.

Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint EURHUF= eased 0.2% to 399.50 per euro, staying on the stronger side of the 400 psychological level, where it has largely remained since late June.

Equilor analysts said 398 was a robust support level for the euroforint, while strong resistance remained in the 400-401 zone.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1041 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.6550

24.6350

-0.08%

+2.25%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

399.5000

398.7500

-0.19%

+2.98%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2550

4.2540

-0.02%

+0.51%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0799

5.0803

+0.01%

-2.04%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0500

117.1500

+0.09%

-0.09%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2182.62

2182.6200

+0.00%

+24.00%

Budapest

.BUX

100097.10

99997.81

+0.10%

+26.18%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2852.40

2850.58

+0.06%

+30.13%

Bucharest

.BETI

18890.47

18890.47

+0.00%

+12.98%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4930

0.0260

+160bps

+2bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.8240

0.0070

+159bps

-1bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.2400

0.0030

+156bps

-2bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.3610

0.0070

+247bps

+0bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.8490

-0.0400

+262bps

-5bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.3400

-0.0140

+266bps

-3bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.48

3.44

3.41

3.49

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.58

4.21

3.86

5.03

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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