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CEE MARKETS-Forint on front foot thanks to high Hungarian rates

ReutersJul 10, 2025 10:13 AM

By Alan Charlish and Anita Komuves

- The Hungarian forint firmed on Thursday amid expectations that its interest rates will remain on hold, while other currencies in central Europe were treading water with traders waiting for more tariff news.

The forint EURHUF=, which has strengthened recently on the back of expectations that stubbornly high inflation will offer the central bank no room to cut its main rate from its current level of 6.5% this year, was 0.25% firmer against the euro at 398.85.

"It's hard to say why the forint is the only one moving," said an FX trader in Budapest.

"But there was a rate cut in Poland recently, and rates in the Czech Republic were lower anyway, so the forint has the biggest rate differential and that gives it strength in the carry trade story, that could be the biggest factor in this."

The trader said that other currencies in the region were waiting for news about potential U.S. tariffs, particularly on the European Union.

Trump on Wednesday announced a new 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports and a 50% duty on goods from Brazil, both to start on August 1. Trump earlier on his Truth Social media platform issued August 1 tariff notices to seven minor trading partners.

Central European currencies were little moved by the announcement.

The Polish zloty EURPLN= was broadly stable at 4.245.

"The zloty... in our opinion, will remain in consolidation against the euro around 4.24-4.25 until the end of this week," PKO BP analysts said in a note.

The Czech crown EURCZK= was 0.08% firmer at 24.635, while the Romanian leu EURRON= was 0.05% weaker at 5.0778.

Romania's central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 6.50% as expected on Tuesday, warning that recently approved tax hikes will push annual inflation considerably higher in the short term than previously forecast.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1132 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.6350

24.6550

+0.08%

+2.33%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

398.8500

399.8500

+0.25%

+3.15%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2450

4.2465

+0.04%

+0.75%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0778

5.0751

-0.05%

-1.99%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0800

117.1600

+0.07%

-0.11%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2181.11

2168.0800

+0.60%

+23.91%

Budapest

.BUX

99904.98

100049.90

-0.14%

+25.94%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2901.44

2897.67

+0.13%

+32.36%

Bucharest

.BETI

18860.96

18754.36

+0.57%

+12.80%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.5090

0.0100

+164bps

+0bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.8200

0.0000

+163bps

-1bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.2360

-0.0020

+160bps

-1bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.3430

-0.0090

+248bps

-2bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.8740

0.0100

+268bps

+0bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.3540

-0.0170

+271bps

-3bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.48

3.43

3.40

3.49

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.58

4.21

3.85

5.04

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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