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CEE MARKETS-FX holds steady as markets eye tariff developments

ReutersJul 9, 2025 9:21 AM

- Central European currencies were little moved on Wednesday, trading in their recent ranges while stocks were mixed as investors focused on news about U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans.

Trump said on Tuesday that he would "probably" tell the European Union within two days what rate it can expect for its exports to the United States. He also announced plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper and said long-threatened levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals would be introduced soon.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= slid 0.07%, trading at 400.2 per euro after it weakened past the psychological level of 400 in the previous session.

"There is very little liquidity in the market actually," an FX trader in Budapest said.

"The carry trade based on the high central bank rate is keeping the forint from big losses, but some global risks such as tariffs loom, which will keep it from significant strengthening. I expect it to stay in the 398-402 range for some time," the trader added.

Traders trimmed rate-cut bets after data released on Tuesday showed inflation remaining stubbornly above the central bank's target range. In June, the central bank left its base rate on hold at the European Union's joint highest level of 6.5%.

Romania's leu EURRON= added 0.12%, trading at 5.0763 per euro, a day after the central bank left its benchmark interest rate at 6.50%, as expected, and warned that recently approved tax hikes will push annual inflation considerably higher in the short term than previously forecast.

"While it is almost certain that we will not see rate cuts this year, it is clear that the central bank will want to wait to see the impact of the government's measures this year before considering any action in future," ING wrote in a note.

Elsewhere, the Polish zloty EURPLN= was a touch stronger, up 0.05% versus the euro as it traded at 4.2405.

Polish state-run development bank BGK said that in contrast to core markets, the zloty was "in vacation mode".

"We expect another quiet day for the zloty. The bar for EURPLN to break out from around the 4.25 level is high, and we don't expect it to be breached in the coming hours."

The Czech crown EURCZK= edged higher, adding 0.16% to trade at 24.624 per euro as it kept trading near recently hit one-year highs.

Budapest's stock index .BUX rose 0.6% while Warsaw's equities .WIG20 edged down 0.06%. Prague's index .PX slid 0.04% while Romania's stocks .BETI added 0.09%.

CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1040 CET

CURRENCIES

Latest trade

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Czech crown

EURCZK=

24.6240

24.6630

+0.16%

+2.38%

Hungary forint

EURHUF=

400.2000

399.9000

-0.07%

+2.80%

Polish zloty

EURPLN=

4.2405

4.2425

+0.05%

+0.86%

Romanian leu

EURRON=

5.0763

5.0825

+0.12%

-1.97%

Serbian dinar

EURRSD=

117.0500

117.1300

+0.07%

-0.09%

Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous close

Daily change

Change in 2025

Prague

.PX

2158.88

2159.8000

-0.04%

+22.65%

Budapest

.BUX

99576.49

98986.44

+0.60%

+25.53%

Warsaw

.WIG20

2887.86

2889.54

-0.06%

+31.74%

Bucharest

.BETI

18698.12

18680.54

+0.09%

+11.83%

BONDS

Yield (bid)

Yield change

Spread vs Bund

Daily change in spread

Czech Rep 2-year

CZ2YT=RR

3.4980

-0.0010

+163bps

+0bps

Czech Rep 5-year

CZ5YT=RR

3.8250

-0.0010

+163bps

+0bps

Czech Rep 10-year

CZ10YT=RR

4.2450

0.0050

+161bps

+1bps

Poland 2-year

PL2YT=RR

4.3690

0.0010

+250bps

+0bps

Poland 5-year

PL5YT=RR

4.8920

-0.0360

+270bps

-3bps

Poland 10-year

PL10YT=RR

5.3780

-0.0240

+274bps

-2bps

FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS

3x6

6x9

9x12

3M interbank

Czech Rep

CZKFRA, PRIBOR=

3.49

3.46

3.41

3.49

Poland

PLNFRA, WIBOR=

4.60

4.24

3.92

5.04

Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices

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